Executive summary: Rational decision-making cannot be reduced to simply “winning” or performing well, and requires grounding in non-pragmatic philosophical principles that guide belief formation and choice.
Key points:
Pragmatic principles like “avoiding dominated strategies” or “doing what worked in the past” provide little meaningful guidance for decision-making.
Performance metrics and historical success are insufficient to justify decision rules, especially for complex, high-stakes scenarios like AI safety.
Non-pragmatic principles like the principle of indifference, Occam’s razor, and epistemic humility are crucial for rational reasoning.
In cases of significant uncertainty, suspending judgment and acknowledging indeterminacy may be the most responsible approach.
Rational decision-making requires reflecting on compelling philosophical principles, not just accepting default heuristics.
For longtermist questions, this approach may often lead to a state of “cluelessness” about the best course of action.
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Executive summary: Rational decision-making cannot be reduced to simply “winning” or performing well, and requires grounding in non-pragmatic philosophical principles that guide belief formation and choice.
Key points:
Pragmatic principles like “avoiding dominated strategies” or “doing what worked in the past” provide little meaningful guidance for decision-making.
Performance metrics and historical success are insufficient to justify decision rules, especially for complex, high-stakes scenarios like AI safety.
Non-pragmatic principles like the principle of indifference, Occam’s razor, and epistemic humility are crucial for rational reasoning.
In cases of significant uncertainty, suspending judgment and acknowledging indeterminacy may be the most responsible approach.
Rational decision-making requires reflecting on compelling philosophical principles, not just accepting default heuristics.
For longtermist questions, this approach may often lead to a state of “cluelessness” about the best course of action.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.