FWIW, GPT said the greenhouse effect is not stronger locally to the emissions. So, I would guess that if you can offset and emit the same kind of greenhouse gas molecules roughly simultaneously, it would be very unlikely we’d be able to predict which regions are made worse off by this than neither emitting nor offsetting.
Interesting!
Fleurbaey and Voorhoeve wrote a related paper: https://​​doi.org/​​10.1093/​​acprof:oso/​​9780199931392.003.0009
FWIW, GPT said the greenhouse effect is not stronger locally to the emissions. So, I would guess that if you can offset and emit the same kind of greenhouse gas molecules roughly simultaneously, it would be very unlikely we’d be able to predict which regions are made worse off by this than neither emitting nor offsetting.