Also, another possible response is 3. ignoring indirect effects, but this seems pretty unprincipled/unjustified and prone to systematic error to me. Ignoring cross-worldview or cross-cause indirect effects may be okay as an approximation to the portfolio approach if it’s done within a portfolio of interventions across causes/worldviews, because it’s plausible negative indirect effects can be made up for through more targeted/leveraged interventions for those causes/worldviews in the portfolios.
However, when I think of the current total EA portfolio of interventions, I think it’s pretty plausible we aren’t making up for possibly negative wild animal effects because agricultural land use is huge and fishing has huge population effects, and (although I’m much less informed on the issue) I also worry about s-risks being increased.
Also, another possible response is 3. ignoring indirect effects, but this seems pretty unprincipled/unjustified and prone to systematic error to me. Ignoring cross-worldview or cross-cause indirect effects may be okay as an approximation to the portfolio approach if it’s done within a portfolio of interventions across causes/worldviews, because it’s plausible negative indirect effects can be made up for through more targeted/leveraged interventions for those causes/worldviews in the portfolios.
However, when I think of the current total EA portfolio of interventions, I think it’s pretty plausible we aren’t making up for possibly negative wild animal effects because agricultural land use is huge and fishing has huge population effects, and (although I’m much less informed on the issue) I also worry about s-risks being increased.