Toby Ord had a x-risk probability of 10% from AI and about 7% from other causes back then for a total of about 1⁄6.
Reading this, I thought Toby Ord had a total all-cause x-risk probabilitity of 10% back then at first and checked it. Thought this might be helpful since Eliezer specifically mentioned <10% x-risk from AI as very unreasonable.
Toby Ord had a x-risk probability of 10% from AI and about 7% from other causes back then for a total of about 1⁄6.
Reading this, I thought Toby Ord had a total all-cause x-risk probabilitity of 10% back then at first and checked it. Thought this might be helpful since Eliezer specifically mentioned <10% x-risk from AI as very unreasonable.