I think I roughly agree with your ranking Brian!
I’m skeptical of how much this would change people’s views on Moral Circle Expansion, so I don’t think this post would have a lot of value, since it might not be concrete/applicable enough.
Speaking for myself here, I’d be very interested in reading a more in-depth critique of Moral Circle Expansion, and I’m open to changing my mind on that topic. Although I’m perhaps most interested in predictions of specific questions, like whether our descendants will care about the welfare of invertebrates and other wild animals, and (relatedly) whether sentience is likely to be the main determinant of moral concern in the future.
(Thanks Linch for a great post!)