Executive summary: When dealing with interventions that have very low probability but high impact, we should be cautious about precise probability estimates since they could easily be off by a percentage point, significantly affecting expected value calculations.
Key points:
Real-world probability estimates, especially small ones, are likely to be imprecise by about one percentage point, making expected value calculations less reliable
For high-impact, low-probability interventions, this uncertainty can dramatically affect the expected value (e.g., 1.5% ± 1% could mean anywhere from 500 to 2500 DALYs saved)
Binary choices between interventions with very different probability profiles (like in the EA Survey) may oversimplify decision-making
Practical recommendation: Use portfolio approaches to handle uncertainty, and communicate probability estimates with appropriate humility
When designing surveys or thought experiments, maintain realism to elicit more meaningful responses
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: When dealing with interventions that have very low probability but high impact, we should be cautious about precise probability estimates since they could easily be off by a percentage point, significantly affecting expected value calculations.
Key points:
Real-world probability estimates, especially small ones, are likely to be imprecise by about one percentage point, making expected value calculations less reliable
For high-impact, low-probability interventions, this uncertainty can dramatically affect the expected value (e.g., 1.5% ± 1% could mean anywhere from 500 to 2500 DALYs saved)
Binary choices between interventions with very different probability profiles (like in the EA Survey) may oversimplify decision-making
Practical recommendation: Use portfolio approaches to handle uncertainty, and communicate probability estimates with appropriate humility
When designing surveys or thought experiments, maintain realism to elicit more meaningful responses
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.