As a datapoint: despite (already) agreeing to a large extent with this post,[1] IIRC I answered the question assuming that I do trust the premise.
Despite my agreement, I do think there are certain kinds of situations in which we can reasonably use small probabilities. (Related post: Most* small probabilities aren’t pascalian, and maybe also related.)
More generally: I remember appreciating some discussion on the kinds of thought experiments that are useful, when, etc. I can’t find it quickly, but possible starting points could be this LW post, Least Convenient Possible World, maybe this post from Richard, and stuff about fictional evidence.
Writing quickly based on a skim, sorry for lack of clarity/misinterpretations!
My view is roughly something like:
at least in the most obviously analogous situations, it’s very rare that we can properly tell the difference between 1.5% and 0.15% (and so the premise is somewhat absurd)
As a datapoint: despite (already) agreeing to a large extent with this post,[1] IIRC I answered the question assuming that I do trust the premise.
Despite my agreement, I do think there are certain kinds of situations in which we can reasonably use small probabilities. (Related post: Most* small probabilities aren’t pascalian, and maybe also related.)
More generally: I remember appreciating some discussion on the kinds of thought experiments that are useful, when, etc. I can’t find it quickly, but possible starting points could be this LW post, Least Convenient Possible World, maybe this post from Richard, and stuff about fictional evidence.
Writing quickly based on a skim, sorry for lack of clarity/misinterpretations!
My view is roughly something like:
at least in the most obviously analogous situations, it’s very rare that we can properly tell the difference between 1.5% and 0.15% (and so the premise is somewhat absurd)