My conclusion from this, and other situations I’ve seen, is that you can arrive at a robust modelling or scientific conclusion (eg: under standard assumptions, PEPFAR isn’t cost effective). But working out the policy or other action-relevant implications of that conclusion is likely at least as hard as coming to that conclusion.
Thanks for your comment and I agree. Modelling (even rigorous modelling) is just that, a model. It’s a simplification of a more complex reality. We should not mistake the map for the territory, but equally, not using a map would be foolish.
My conclusion from this, and other situations I’ve seen, is that you can arrive at a robust modelling or scientific conclusion (eg: under standard assumptions, PEPFAR isn’t cost effective). But working out the policy or other action-relevant implications of that conclusion is likely at least as hard as coming to that conclusion.
Thanks for your comment and I agree. Modelling (even rigorous modelling) is just that, a model. It’s a simplification of a more complex reality. We should not mistake the map for the territory, but equally, not using a map would be foolish.