In the XPT, you ask about the probability of catastrophes where the fraction of the initial population which survives is 90 % (= 1 − 0.10) and 6*10^-7 (= 5*10^3/(8*10^9)). I think it would be good if you asked about intermediate fractions (e.g. 10 %, 1 %, …, and 10^-7). I guess many forecasters are implicitly estimating their probabilities of extinction from population losses of 99 % to 99.99 %, whereas reaching a population of 5 k (as in your questions about extinction risk) would require a population loss of 99.99994 % (= 1 − 5*10^3/(8*10^9)), which I guess is much less likely.
In addition, you could decompose the questions about extinction risk into multiple ones, and then have forecasters working on these. I guess extinction risk will be much lower if estimated this way.
Hello,
In the XPT, you ask about the probability of catastrophes where the fraction of the initial population which survives is 90 % (= 1 − 0.10) and 6*10^-7 (= 5*10^3/(8*10^9)). I think it would be good if you asked about intermediate fractions (e.g. 10 %, 1 %, …, and 10^-7). I guess many forecasters are implicitly estimating their probabilities of extinction from population losses of 99 % to 99.99 %, whereas reaching a population of 5 k (as in your questions about extinction risk) would require a population loss of 99.99994 % (= 1 − 5*10^3/(8*10^9)), which I guess is much less likely.
In addition, you could decompose the questions about extinction risk into multiple ones, and then have forecasters working on these. I guess extinction risk will be much lower if estimated this way.