Though in the world where the credible range of estimates is 1-10%, and 80% of the field believed the probability were >10% (my prediction from upthread), that would start to get into ‘something’s seriously wrong with the field’ territory from my perspective; that’s not a small disagreement.
(I’m assuming here, as I did when I made my original prediction, that they aren’t all clustered around 15% or whatever; rather, I’d have expected a lot of the field to give a much higher probability than 10%.)
Though in the world where the credible range of estimates is 1-10%, and 80% of the field believed the probability were >10% (my prediction from upthread), that would start to get into ‘something’s seriously wrong with the field’ territory from my perspective; that’s not a small disagreement.
(I’m assuming here, as I did when I made my original prediction, that they aren’t all clustered around 15% or whatever; rather, I’d have expected a lot of the field to give a much higher probability than 10%.)