I don’t think this is an accurate summary of Dario’s stated views. Here’s what he said in 2023 on the Dwarkesh podcast:
Dwarkesh Patel (00:27:49 − 00:27:56):
When you add all this together, what does your estimate of when we get something kind of human level look like?
Dario Amodei (00:27:56 − 00:29:32):
It depends on the thresholds. In terms of someone looks at the model and even if you talk to it for an hour or so, it’s basically like a generally well educated human, that could be not very far away at all. I think that could happen in two or three years.
Possibly by 2026 or 2027 (and almost certainly no later than 2030), the capabilities of AI systems will be best thought of as akin to an entirely new state populated by highly intelligent people appearing on the global stage—a “country of geniuses in a datacenter”—with the profound economic, societal, and security implications that would bring.
These are different ideas, so I think it would be reasonable to have different timelines for “if you talk to it for an hour or so, it’s basically like a generally well educated human” and “a country of geniuses in a datacenter.” Nevertheless there’s substantial overlap with these timelines, 18 months apart; he also uses language that signals some uncertainty at both points. I don’t think this is particularly suspicious — it seems pretty consistent to me.
I agree those two statements don’t obviously seem inconsistent, though independently it seems to me Dario probably has been too optimistic historically.
To me, “a generally well-educated human” and a “highly intelligent” person sounds like more or less the same thing. If, in his mind, there is some clear-cut difference between the two, I haven’t seen him explain this difference anywhere (and I’ve listened to and read a lot of his words).
They seem quite different to me: one is about AIs being able to talk like a smart human, and the other is about their ability to actually do novel scientific research and other serious intellectual tasks.
I don’t think this is an accurate summary of Dario’s stated views. Here’s what he said in 2023 on the Dwarkesh podcast:
Here’s what he said in a statement in February:
These are different ideas, so I think it would be reasonable to have different timelines for “if you talk to it for an hour or so, it’s basically like a generally well educated human” and “a country of geniuses in a datacenter.” Nevertheless there’s substantial overlap with these timelines, 18 months apart; he also uses language that signals some uncertainty at both points. I don’t think this is particularly suspicious — it seems pretty consistent to me.
I agree those two statements don’t obviously seem inconsistent, though independently it seems to me Dario probably has been too optimistic historically.
To me, “a generally well-educated human” and a “highly intelligent” person sounds like more or less the same thing. If, in his mind, there is some clear-cut difference between the two, I haven’t seen him explain this difference anywhere (and I’ve listened to and read a lot of his words).
They seem quite different to me: one is about AIs being able to talk like a smart human, and the other is about their ability to actually do novel scientific research and other serious intellectual tasks.