I donât put much stock in the forecast of AI researchers the graph is from. I see the skill of forecasting as very different from the skill of being a published AI researcher.
Then what was the point of quoting Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, and Demis Hassabisâ timelines at the beginning of your article?
The section of the post âWhen do the âexpertsâ expect AGI to arrive?â suffers from a similar problem: downplaying expert opinion when it challenges the thesis and playing up expert opinion when it supports the thesis. What is the content and structure of this argument? It just feels like a restatement of your personal opinion.
I also wish people would stop citing Metaculus for anything. Metaculus is not a real prediction market. You canât make money on Metaculus. You might as well just survey people on r/âsingularity.
Then what was the point of quoting Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, and Demis Hassabisâ timelines at the beginning of your article?
The section of the post âWhen do the âexpertsâ expect AGI to arrive?â suffers from a similar problem: downplaying expert opinion when it challenges the thesis and playing up expert opinion when it supports the thesis. What is the content and structure of this argument? It just feels like a restatement of your personal opinion.
I also wish people would stop citing Metaculus for anything. Metaculus is not a real prediction market. You canât make money on Metaculus. You might as well just survey people on r/âsingularity.