I agree 100bn in 2029 is harder to square, but I think that’s in part because OpenAI thinks investors won’t believe higher figures.
So, OpenAI is telling the truth when it says AGI will come soon and lying when it says AGI will not come soon?
Sam Altman’s most recent timeline is “thousands of days”, which is so vague. 2,000 days (the minimum “thousands of days” could mean) is 5.5 years. 9,000 days (the point before you might think he would just say “ten thousand days”) is 24.7 years. So, 5-25 years?
So, OpenAI is telling the truth when it says AGI will come soon and lying when it says AGI will not come soon?
Sam Altman’s most recent timeline is “thousands of days”, which is so vague. 2,000 days (the minimum “thousands of days” could mean) is 5.5 years. 9,000 days (the point before you might think he would just say “ten thousand days”) is 24.7 years. So, 5-25 years?
I don’t especially trust OpenAI’s statements on either front.
The framing of the piece is “the companies are making these claims, let’s dig into the evidence for ourselves” not “let’s believe the companies”.
(I think the companies are most worth listening to when it comes to specific capabilities that will arrive in the next 2-3 years.)