I don’t see how we could predict anything in the future at all (like the sun’s existence or the coin flips that were discussed in other comments). Where is the qualitative difference between short- and long-term predictions?
Haha just gonna keep pointing you to places where Popper writes about this stuff b/c it’s far more comprehensive than anything I could write here :)
This question (and the questions re. climate change Max asked in another thread) are the focus of Popper’s book The Poverty of Historicism, where “historicism” here means “any philosophy that tries to make long-term predictions about human society” (i.e marxism, fascism, malthusianism, etc). I’ve attached a screenshot for proof-of-relevance:
(Ben and I discuss historicism here fwiw.) I have a pdf of this one, dm me if you want a copy :)
Haha just gonna keep pointing you to places where Popper writes about this stuff b/c it’s far more comprehensive than anything I could write here :)
This question (and the questions re. climate change Max asked in another thread) are the focus of Popper’s book The Poverty of Historicism, where “historicism” here means “any philosophy that tries to make long-term predictions about human society” (i.e marxism, fascism, malthusianism, etc). I’ve attached a screenshot for proof-of-relevance:
(Ben and I discuss historicism here fwiw.) I have a pdf of this one, dm me if you want a copy :)