I’m looking at different career choices and in particular, academic research projects. I’ve tried to compare their impact by using some Fermi calculations, including working out:
the magnitude of the problem the research will attempt to solve
the likely value of the research if it is successful
the likelihood it will be successful
my marginal contribution to the research if I get involved with it
My calculations seem like they could be easily out by a couple of orders of magnitude. And it makes a difference—one less order of magnitude and the project is not more than the value of my marginal career impact if I simply maximized income and earned-to-give. Of course...who knows...I might have the order of magnitude the other way around, and perhaps the research project could be even more impactful.
Honestly, it seems like a bad idea to make any kind of decision based on this process, but if I want to know which career path has the most impact, I don’t know any other way to do it!
So I have lots of questions, but the biggest one is: if you don’t use this awfully flawed method to decide what the impact of a career path will be, what else would you use?
[Question] Have you ever used a Fermi calculation to make a personal career decision?
I’m looking at different career choices and in particular, academic research projects. I’ve tried to compare their impact by using some Fermi calculations, including working out:
the magnitude of the problem the research will attempt to solve
the likely value of the research if it is successful
the likelihood it will be successful
my marginal contribution to the research if I get involved with it
My calculations seem like they could be easily out by a couple of orders of magnitude. And it makes a difference—one less order of magnitude and the project is not more than the value of my marginal career impact if I simply maximized income and earned-to-give. Of course...who knows...I might have the order of magnitude the other way around, and perhaps the research project could be even more impactful.
Honestly, it seems like a bad idea to make any kind of decision based on this process, but if I want to know which career path has the most impact, I don’t know any other way to do it!
So I have lots of questions, but the biggest one is: if you don’t use this awfully flawed method to decide what the impact of a career path will be, what else would you use?