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Forecasting

TagLast edit: 14 Jul 2022 20:52 UTC by Leo

Forecasting is the art and science of predicting the future. Forecasting can help us get a better sense of what will happen in the future, so that we can prepare appropriately. It is a significant aspect of EA strategy around pandemic preparedness (see biosecurity), AI alignment, animal product alternatives, and many other topics.

Forecasting is a feedback loop. Forecasters make predictions and then when those predictions resolve forecasters get scores. This allows the forecasters to improve and allows everyone else to know who the best forecasters are. In the future, we can weigh the forecasts of the better forecasters more heavily.

Further reading

Aird, Michael (2020) Failures in technology forecasting? A reply to Ord and Yudkowsky, LessWrong, May 8.

Dart Throwing Spider Monkey (2020) Intro to forecasting 01 - What is it and why should I care?, YouTube, October 26.

Kokotajlo, Daniel (2019) Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post, AI Impacts.
An excellent summary of the evidence on good forecasting practices.

Lewis, Gregory (2020) Challenges in evaluating forecaster performance, Effective Altruism Forum, September 8.

Muehlhauser, Luke (2016) Evaluation of some technology forecasts from “The Year 2000”, Open Philanthropy, September.

Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.

Muehlhauser, Luke (2021) Superforecasting in a nutshell, Luke Muehlhauser’s Website, February 22.

Tetlock, Philip E. (2006) Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press.

Tetlock, Philip E. & Dan Gardner (2015) Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, New York: Crown Publishers.

Vivalt, Evalt (2020) Announcing the launch of the Social Science Prediction Platform!, Eva Vivalt’s Blog, July 7.

Wiblin, Robert (2017) Prof Tetlock on predicting catastrophes, why keep your politics secret, and when experts know more than you, 80,000 Hours, November 20.

Wiblin, Robert & Keiran Harris (2019) Accurately predicting the future is central to absolutely everything. Professor Tetlock has spent 40 years studying how to do it better, 80,000 Hours, June 28.

External links

Forecasting Wiki. A wiki about forecasting and all things related to it.

Related entries

AI forecasting | credence | estimation of existential risk | Forecasting Newsletter | improving institutional decision-making | inside vs. outside view | long-range forecasting | Metaculus | model uncertainty | prediction markets | tabletop exercises | value of information

Ev­i­dence on good fore­cast­ing prac­tices from the Good Judg­ment Pro­ject: an ac­com­pa­ny­ing blog post

kokotajlod15 Feb 2019 19:14 UTC
79 points
14 comments21 min readEA link

Com­par­ing top fore­cast­ers and do­main experts

Gavin6 Mar 2022 20:43 UTC
165 points
37 comments13 min readEA link

Use re­silience, in­stead of im­pre­ci­sion, to com­mu­ni­cate uncertainty

Gregory_Lewis18 Jul 2020 12:09 UTC
95 points
34 comments7 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Metafore­cast: A Fore­cast Ag­gre­ga­tor and Search Tool

NunoSempere7 Mar 2021 19:03 UTC
131 points
17 comments4 min readEA link

Data on fore­cast­ing ac­cu­racy across differ­ent time hori­zons and lev­els of fore­caster experience

Charles Dillon 27 May 2021 18:51 UTC
109 points
6 comments23 min readEA link

My cur­rent best guess on how to ag­gre­gate forecasts

Jaime Sevilla6 Oct 2021 8:33 UTC
30 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­casts about EA or­gani­sa­tions which are cur­rently on Me­tac­u­lus.

alexrjl29 Dec 2020 17:42 UTC
60 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

When pool­ing fore­casts, use the ge­o­met­ric mean of odds

Jaime Sevilla3 Sep 2021 9:58 UTC
93 points
59 comments8 min readEA link

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA15 Apr 2020 12:43 UTC
114 points
36 comments5 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2020

NunoSempere30 Apr 2020 16:41 UTC
54 points
8 comments7 min readEA link

[Link] “How fea­si­ble is long-range fore­cast­ing?” (Open Phil)

Milan_Griffes11 Oct 2019 21:01 UTC
42 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] How valuable would more aca­demic re­search on fore­cast­ing be? What ques­tions should be re­searched?

MichaelA12 Aug 2020 7:19 UTC
23 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

Prin­ci­pled ex­trem­iz­ing of ag­gre­gated forecasts

Jaime Sevilla29 Dec 2021 18:49 UTC
44 points
3 comments7 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2020.

NunoSempere31 May 2020 12:35 UTC
35 points
3 comments20 min readEA link

Del­e­gate a forecast

amandango26 Jul 2020 5:05 UTC
42 points
43 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Nov 2020 13:00 UTC
34 points
2 comments4 min readEA link

Nar­ra­tion: Re­port on Run­ning a Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment at an EA Re­treat, part 2

D0TheMath14 Jul 2021 19:41 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(anchor.fm)

Im­pact­ful Fore­cast­ing Prize for fore­cast write­ups on cu­rated Me­tac­u­lus questions

elifland4 Feb 2022 20:06 UTC
91 points
13 comments4 min readEA link

Early-warn­ing Fore­cast­ing Cen­ter: What it is, and why it’d be cool

Linch14 Mar 2022 19:20 UTC
53 points
6 comments11 min readEA link

Po­ten­tially great ways fore­cast­ing can im­prove the longterm future

Linch14 Mar 2022 19:21 UTC
36 points
6 comments6 min readEA link

[Part 1] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – mod­els of im­pact and challenges

jacobjacob19 Dec 2019 18:16 UTC
53 points
2 comments17 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Fore­told.io: A New Open-Source Pre­dic­tion Registry

Ozzie Gooen16 Oct 2019 14:47 UTC
48 points
5 comments3 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

I’m Linch Zhang, an am­a­teur COVID-19 fore­caster and gen­er­al­ist EA. AMA

Linch30 Jun 2020 19:35 UTC
77 points
80 comments1 min readEA link

David Man­heim: A Per­sonal (In­terim) COVID-19 Postmortem

Linch1 Jul 2020 6:05 UTC
32 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

[Question] What ques­tions would you like to see fore­casts on from the Me­tac­u­lus com­mu­nity?

alexrjl26 Jul 2020 14:40 UTC
32 points
30 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2020.

NunoSempere1 Jul 2020 9:32 UTC
45 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

In­cen­tive Prob­lems With Cur­rent Fore­cast­ing Com­pe­ti­tions.

alexrjl10 Nov 2020 21:40 UTC
54 points
13 comments5 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing In­no­va­tion Prize

Ozzie Gooen15 Nov 2020 21:21 UTC
64 points
7 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: De­cem­ber 2020

NunoSempere1 Jan 2021 16:07 UTC
26 points
2 comments10 min readEA link

AMA: Ajeya Co­tra, re­searcher at Open Phil

Ajeya28 Jan 2021 17:38 UTC
84 points
107 comments1 min readEA link

Some global catas­trophic risk estimates

Tamay10 Feb 2021 19:32 UTC
105 points
14 comments1 min readEA link

Ta­boo “Out­side View”

kokotajlod17 Jun 2021 9:39 UTC
169 points
24 comments8 min readEA link

Types of speci­fi­ca­tion prob­lems in forecasting

Juan Gil20 Jul 2021 4:17 UTC
35 points
1 comment13 min readEA link

Cul­tured meat pre­dic­tions were overly optimistic

Neil_Dullaghan15 Sep 2021 12:32 UTC
189 points
15 comments4 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Look­ing back at 2021.

NunoSempere27 Jan 2022 20:14 UTC
60 points
8 comments9 min readEA link
(forecasting.substack.com)

Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk Fore­casts — March 2022

NunoSempere10 Mar 2022 18:52 UTC
152 points
55 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­casts es­ti­mate limited cul­tured meat pro­duc­tion through 2050

Neil_Dullaghan21 Mar 2022 23:13 UTC
121 points
10 comments28 min readEA link

Par­ti­ci­pate in the Hy­brid Fore­cast­ing-Per­sua­sion Tour­na­ment (on X-risk top­ics)

Jhrosenberg25 Apr 2022 22:13 UTC
51 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Thread: Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

amandango22 Sep 2020 20:51 UTC
24 points
4 comments2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Some learn­ings I had from fore­cast­ing in 2020

Linch3 Oct 2020 19:21 UTC
87 points
8 comments3 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2020 11:00 UTC
41 points
4 comments11 min readEA link

Es­ti­ma­tion and fore­cast­ing — an overview (Amanda Ngo)

EA Global25 Oct 2020 5:48 UTC
8 points
0 comments14 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

For­mal­is­ing the “Wash­ing Out Hy­poth­e­sis”

dwebb25 Mar 2021 11:40 UTC
95 points
24 comments12 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing Open Phil Grants

Charles Dillon 23 Jul 2021 14:00 UTC
55 points
9 comments2 min readEA link

Is­sues with Futarchy

Lizka7 Oct 2021 17:24 UTC
59 points
8 comments28 min readEA link

[Question] What stops you do­ing more fore­cast­ing?

Nathan Young16 Nov 2021 0:26 UTC
11 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

EA megapro­jects continued

mariushobbhahn3 Dec 2021 10:33 UTC
175 points
47 comments7 min readEA link

Bot­tle­necks to more im­pact­ful crowd forecasting

elifland26 Dec 2021 22:48 UTC
45 points
2 comments10 min readEA link
(www.foxy-scout.com)

Affec­tive fore­cast­ing: The challenge of pre­dict­ing fu­ture feel­ings and the im­pli­ca­tions for global pri­ori­ties research

Matt Coleman17 Feb 2022 20:36 UTC
48 points
2 comments20 min readEA link

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund: April 2019 grant recommendations

Habryka23 Apr 2019 7:00 UTC
142 points
242 comments46 min readEA link

Con­cern­ing the Re­cent 2019-Novel Coron­avirus Outbreak

Matthew_Barnett27 Jan 2020 5:47 UTC
131 points
142 comments3 min readEA link

Tech­ni­cal AGI safety re­search out­side AI

richard_ngo18 Oct 2019 15:02 UTC
86 points
5 comments3 min readEA link

Po­ten­tial down­sides of us­ing ex­plicit probabilities

MichaelA20 Jan 2020 2:14 UTC
51 points
22 comments18 min readEA link

Will protests lead to thou­sands of coro­n­avirus deaths?

Larks3 Jun 2020 19:08 UTC
77 points
59 comments5 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2020.

NunoSempere1 Aug 2020 16:56 UTC
31 points
1 comment22 min readEA link

[Question] Will Three Gorges Dam Col­lapse And Kill Millions?

DonyChristie26 Jul 2020 2:43 UTC
77 points
9 comments3 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing the prob­a­bil­ity of ex­is­ten­tial catas­tro­phe: A re­ply to Beard et al.

MichaelA10 Aug 2020 5:56 UTC
21 points
3 comments3 min readEA link
(gcrinstitute.org)

[Question] How can good gen­er­al­ist judg­ment be differ­en­ti­ated from skill at fore­cast­ing?

Linch21 Aug 2020 23:13 UTC
25 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] How to es­ti­mate the EV of gen­eral in­tel­lec­tual progress

Ozzie Gooen27 Jan 2020 10:21 UTC
39 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dictably Pre­dictable Fu­tures Talk: Us­ing Ex­pected Loss & Pre­dic­tion In­no­va­tion for Long Term Benefits

Ozzie Gooen8 Jan 2020 22:19 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Some his­tory top­ics it might be very valuable to investigate

MichaelA8 Jul 2020 2:40 UTC
88 points
34 comments6 min readEA link

Challenges in eval­u­at­ing fore­caster performance

Gregory_Lewis8 Sep 2020 20:37 UTC
22 points
22 comments8 min readEA link

Judge­ment as a key need in EA

Benjamin_Todd12 Sep 2020 14:48 UTC
30 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

Pablo Staffor­ini’s Fore­cast­ing System

jungofthewon16 Sep 2020 20:46 UTC
72 points
9 comments11 min readEA link

Es­ti­ma­tion of prob­a­bil­ities to get tenure track in academia: baseline and pub­li­ca­tions dur­ing the PhD.

PabloAMC20 Sep 2020 18:32 UTC
39 points
9 comments6 min readEA link

In­sta­bil­ity risks of the up­com­ing U.S. elec­tion and recom­men­da­tions for EAs

Juan Cambeiro3 Nov 2020 1:19 UTC
30 points
1 comment5 min readEA link

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

kokotajlod7 Nov 2020 12:45 UTC
33 points
12 comments2 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Ben­tham Prize

Pablo21 Jan 2020 22:23 UTC
33 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

[Link] The Op­ti­mizer’s Curse & Wrong-Way Reductions

Chris Smith4 Apr 2019 13:28 UTC
83 points
61 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Needed: Vol­un­teer fore­cast­ers for Fish Welfare Initiative

haven21 Nov 2020 19:15 UTC
18 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

AGI Predictions

Pablo21 Nov 2020 12:02 UTC
36 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Pre­dict­ing the Value of Small Altru­is­tic Pro­jects: A Proof of Con­cept Ex­per­i­ment.

NunoSempere22 Nov 2020 20:07 UTC
62 points
3 comments11 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Dec 2020 17:00 UTC
33 points
0 comments12 min readEA link

[Question] How might bet­ter col­lec­tive de­ci­sion-mak­ing back­fire?

Dawn Drescher13 Dec 2020 11:44 UTC
37 points
21 comments2 min readEA link

2020: Fore­cast­ing in Review

NunoSempere10 Jan 2021 16:05 UTC
35 points
7 comments10 min readEA link

[Pod­cast] Rob Wiblin on self-im­prove­ment and re­search ethics

MichaelA15 Jan 2021 7:24 UTC
8 points
7 comments1 min readEA link
(clearerthinkingpodcast.com)

How Can Donors In­cen­tivize Good Pre­dic­tions on Im­por­tant but Un­pop­u­lar Topics?

MichaelDickens3 Feb 2019 1:11 UTC
27 points
4 commentsEA link

Com­plex clue­less­ness as credal fragility

Gregory_Lewis8 Feb 2021 16:59 UTC
50 points
50 comments23 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Prize Results

NunoSempere19 Feb 2021 19:07 UTC
44 points
5 comments6 min readEA link

Some EA Fo­rum Posts I’d like to write

Linch23 Feb 2021 5:27 UTC
87 points
10 comments7 min readEA link

[Part 2] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – re­sults from a pre­limi­nary exploration

jacobjacob19 Dec 2019 16:36 UTC
31 points
1 comment14 min readEA link

Su­perfore­cast­ing in a nutshell

lukeprog25 Feb 2021 6:11 UTC
31 points
2 comments4 min readEA link
(lukemuehlhauser.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2021

NunoSempere1 Mar 2021 20:29 UTC
19 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

Q&A with Philip Tet­lock (2016)

EA Global5 Aug 2016 9:19 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Owen Cot­ton-Bar­ratt, Robin Han­son, Ja­son Ma­theny, and Ju­lia Galef: Forecasting

EA Global5 Aug 2016 9:19 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

In­creas­ing the Ac­cu­racy of Our Judg­ments: In­ter­ac­tive exercise

EA Handbook1 Jan 2021 11:55 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

In­creas­ing the Ac­cu­racy of Our Judg­ments: More to explore

EA Handbook1 Jan 2021 11:49 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2021

NunoSempere1 Apr 2021 17:01 UTC
22 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

On AI and Compute

johncrox3 Apr 2019 21:26 UTC
39 points
12 comments8 min readEA link

Draft re­port on AI timelines

Ajeya15 Dec 2020 12:10 UTC
35 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(alignmentforum.org)

AI Fore­cast­ing Re­s­olu­tion Coun­cil (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 2)

jacobjacob29 Aug 2019 17:43 UTC
28 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Dic­tionary (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 1)

jacobjacob8 Aug 2019 13:16 UTC
18 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Ques­tion Database (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 3)

jacobjacob3 Sep 2019 14:57 UTC
23 points
2 comments4 min readEA link

Against GDP as a met­ric for timelines and take­off speeds

kokotajlod29 Dec 2020 17:50 UTC
41 points
6 comments14 min readEA link

Atari early

AI Impacts2 Apr 2020 23:28 UTC
34 points
2 comments5 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

[Question] Are there su­perfore­casts for ex­is­ten­tial risk?

Alex HT7 Jul 2020 7:39 UTC
24 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

Rele­vant pre-AGI possibilities

kokotajlod20 Jun 2020 13:15 UTC
22 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

Light­ning talks from EA Global: San Fran­cisco (2018)

EA Global8 Jun 2018 20:51 UTC
6 points
0 comments11 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2021

NunoSempere1 May 2021 15:58 UTC
21 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

Efforts to Im­prove the Ac­cu­racy of Our Judg­ments and Fore­casts (Open Philan­thropy)

lukeprog25 Oct 2016 10:09 UTC
11 points
0 comments29 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

David Rhys Bernard: Es­ti­mat­ing long-term effects with­out long-term data

EA Global6 Jul 2020 15:16 UTC
23 points
0 comments18 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

An­nounc­ing the UK Covid-19 Crowd Fore­cast­ing Challenge

nikos17 May 2021 19:28 UTC
7 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] What im­por­tant ques­tions are miss­ing from Me­tac­u­lus?

Charles Dillon 26 May 2021 14:03 UTC
38 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2021

NunoSempere1 Jun 2021 15:51 UTC
23 points
2 comments11 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Nu­clear Risk Fore­cast­ing Tournament

MichaelA16 Jun 2021 16:12 UTC
38 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2021

NunoSempere1 Jul 2021 20:59 UTC
29 points
0 comments14 min readEA link

Book Re­view: The Sig­nal and the Noise

Sam Enright18 Jul 2021 21:32 UTC
30 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

[Question] Me­tac­u­lus Ques­tions Suggest Money Will Do More Good in the Future

MichaelDickens22 Jul 2021 1:56 UTC
20 points
17 comments2 min readEA link

De­creas­ing pop­ulism and im­prov­ing democ­racy, ev­i­dence-based policy, and rationality

Hauke Hillebrandt27 Jul 2021 18:14 UTC
37 points
10 comments26 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2021

NunoSempere1 Aug 2021 15:07 UTC
19 points
2 comments8 min readEA link

What 2026 looks like (Daniel’s me­dian fu­ture)

kokotajlod7 Aug 2021 5:14 UTC
32 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Sum­mary and Take­aways: Han­son’s “Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?”

Lizka25 Aug 2021 0:43 UTC
38 points
12 comments17 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2021

NunoSempere1 Sep 2021 16:59 UTC
24 points
2 comments8 min readEA link

AI Timelines: Where the Ar­gu­ments, and the “Ex­perts,” Stand

Holden Karnofsky7 Sep 2021 17:35 UTC
72 points
2 comments11 min readEA link

Event on Oct 9: Fore­cast­ing Nu­clear Risk with Re­think Pri­ori­ties’ Michael Aird

MichaelA29 Sep 2021 17:45 UTC
24 points
3 comments2 min readEA link
(www.eventbrite.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2021.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2021 17:03 UTC
20 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

[Event] A Me­tac­u­lus Open Panel Dis­cus­sion: How Fore­casts In­form COVID-19 Policy

christian4 Oct 2021 18:17 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

“Nu­clear risk re­search, fore­cast­ing, & im­pact” [pre­sen­ta­tion]

MichaelA21 Oct 2021 10:54 UTC
13 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

An es­ti­mate of the value of Me­tac­u­lus questions

NunoSempere22 Oct 2021 17:45 UTC
46 points
19 comments8 min readEA link

A prac­ti­cal guide to long-term plan­ning – and sug­ges­tions for longtermism

weeatquince10 Oct 2021 15:37 UTC
114 points
12 comments24 min readEA link

Will Givewell recom­mend breast­feed­ing pro­mo­tion be­fore 2027 [fore­cast] [cross­post]

Nathan Young9 Nov 2021 22:58 UTC
20 points
2 comments3 min readEA link

Com­pe­ti­tion for “For­tified Es­says” on nu­clear risk

MichaelA17 Nov 2021 20:55 UTC
33 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Chris­ti­ano, Co­tra, and Yud­kowsky on AI progress

Ajeya25 Nov 2021 16:30 UTC
18 points
6 comments68 min readEA link

Path­ways to im­pact for fore­cast­ing and evaluation

NunoSempere25 Nov 2021 17:59 UTC
28 points
16 comments2 min readEA link

Do­ing good while clueless

Milan_Griffes15 Feb 2018 5:04 UTC
46 points
8 commentsEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2021

NunoSempere2 Dec 2021 21:35 UTC
23 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Con­ver­sa­tion on tech­nol­ogy fore­cast­ing and gradualism

RobBensinger9 Dec 2021 19:00 UTC
15 points
3 comments31 min readEA link

[Question] Who is work­ing on struc­tured crowd fore­cast­ing?

David Johnston20 Dec 2021 8:58 UTC
4 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion Bank: A way around cur­rent pre­dic­tion mar­ket reg­u­la­tions?

Gaurav Sett25 Jan 2022 4:21 UTC
25 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

EA Fundrais­ing Through Ad­van­tage Sports Bet­ting: A Guide ($500/​Hour in Select States)

Sam Anschell27 Jan 2022 8:57 UTC
65 points
76 comments12 min readEA link

We are giv­ing $10k as fore­cast­ing micro-grants

Misha_Yagudin8 Feb 2022 12:20 UTC
49 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

900+ Fore­cast­ers on Whether Rus­sia Will In­vade Ukraine

Metaculus19 Feb 2022 13:29 UTC
51 points
2 comments4 min readEA link
(metaculus.medium.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2022

NunoSempere5 Mar 2022 19:16 UTC
25 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

Col­lec­tion of defi­ni­tions of “good judge­ment”

MichaelA14 Mar 2022 14:14 UTC
29 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

[Cross-post] A nu­clear war fore­cast is not a coin flip

David Johnston15 Mar 2022 4:01 UTC
28 points
12 comments3 min readEA link

Re­duc­ing Nu­clear Risk Through Im­proved US-China Relations

Metaculus21 Mar 2022 11:50 UTC
31 points
19 comments5 min readEA link

Rus­sia-Ukraine Con­flict: Fore­cast­ing Nu­clear Risk in 2022

Metaculus24 Mar 2022 21:03 UTC
23 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

Launch­ing the INFER Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment for EA uni groups

hannah wing-yee31 Mar 2022 6:25 UTC
45 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

Com­par­ing Su­perfore­cast­ing and the In­tel­li­gence Com­mu­nity Pre­dic­tion Market

LuisEUrtubey12 Apr 2022 9:24 UTC
17 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

6 Year De­crease of Me­tac­u­lus AGI Prediction

Chris Leong12 Apr 2022 5:36 UTC
40 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Peter Wilde­ford on Fore­cast­ing Nu­clear Risk and why EA should fund scal­able non-profits

Michaël Trazzi13 Apr 2022 16:29 UTC
9 points
1 comment3 min readEA link
(theinsideview.github.io)

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing Wiki

nikos15 Apr 2022 9:53 UTC
23 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

“Be­fore 5 Au­gust 2022, will Rus­sia deto­nate a nu­clear de­vice out­side of Rus­sian ter­ri­tory or airspace?”

LuisEUrtubey15 Apr 2022 22:07 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Get­ting GPT-3 to pre­dict Me­tac­u­lus questions

MathiasKB6 May 2022 12:12 UTC
58 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2022

NunoSempere10 May 2022 16:40 UTC
44 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Czech fore­cast­ing pro­ject: Summary

janklenha13 May 2022 22:10 UTC
29 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

Re­quest for pro­pos­als: Help Open Philan­thropy quan­tify biolog­i­cal risk

djbinder12 May 2022 21:28 UTC
124 points
6 comments7 min readEA link

The chance of ac­ci­den­tal nu­clear war has been go­ing down

Peter Wildeford31 May 2022 14:48 UTC
66 points
6 comments1 min readEA link
(www.pasteurscube.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2022

NunoSempere3 Jun 2022 19:32 UTC
31 points
5 comments6 min readEA link

How ac­cu­rate are Open Phil’s pre­dic­tions?

Javier Prieto16 Jun 2022 9:15 UTC
151 points
18 comments12 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

On Defer­ence and Yud­kowsky’s AI Risk Estimates

Ben Garfinkel19 Jun 2022 14:35 UTC
254 points
188 comments17 min readEA link

7 es­says on Build­ing a Bet­ter Future

Jamie_Harris24 Jun 2022 14:28 UTC
20 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Epoch: A re­search or­ga­ni­za­tion in­ves­ti­gat­ing the road to Trans­for­ma­tive AI

Jaime Sevilla27 Jun 2022 13:39 UTC
181 points
11 comments2 min readEA link
(epochai.org)

The Track Record of Fu­tur­ists Seems … Fine

Holden Karnofsky4 Jul 2022 15:47 UTC
67 points
2 comments12 min readEA link
(www.cold-takes.com)

Fu­ture Mat­ters #3: digi­tal sen­tience, AGI ruin, and fore­cast­ing track records

Pablo4 Jul 2022 17:44 UTC
70 points
2 comments19 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Squig­gle: Early Access

Ozzie Gooen3 Aug 2022 0:23 UTC
143 points
11 comments7 min readEA link

Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA7 Apr 2020 2:19 UTC
66 points
33 comments9 min readEA link

Does gen­er­al­ity pay? GPT-3 can provide pre­limi­nary ev­i­dence.

BrownHairedEevee12 Jul 2020 18:53 UTC
21 points
4 comments2 min readEA link

Donor Lot­tery Debrief

TimothyTelleenLawton4 Aug 2020 20:58 UTC
129 points
17 comments5 min readEA link

The ap­pli­ca­bil­ity of transsen­tien­tist crit­i­cal path analysis

Peter Sølling11 Aug 2020 11:26 UTC
0 points
2 comments32 min readEA link
(www.optimalaltruism.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2020.

NunoSempere1 Sep 2020 11:35 UTC
22 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

EA Uni Group Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment!

avshah18 Sep 2020 16:35 UTC
62 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

Quan­tum com­put­ing timelines

Jaime Sevilla15 Sep 2020 14:15 UTC
21 points
6 comments3 min readEA link

Au­tomat­ing rea­son­ing about the fu­ture at Ought

jungofthewon9 Nov 2020 22:30 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(ought.org)

Ten Com­mand­ments for Aspiring Su­perfore­cast­ers

Evan_Gaensbauer25 Apr 2018 5:07 UTC
19 points
3 commentsEA link

Bi­nary pre­dic­tion database and tournament

amandango17 Nov 2020 18:09 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Helping fu­ture re­searchers to bet­ter un­der­stand long-term forecasting

gabriel_wagner25 Nov 2020 18:55 UTC
2 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

In­cen­tiviz­ing fore­cast­ing via so­cial media

David_Althaus16 Dec 2020 12:11 UTC
70 points
19 comments18 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing of Pri­ori­ties: a tool for effec­tive poli­ti­cal par­ti­ci­pa­tion?

janklenha31 Dec 2020 15:24 UTC
27 points
8 comments7 min readEA link

One’s Fu­ture Be­hav­ior as a Do­main of Calibration

markus_over31 Dec 2020 15:48 UTC
17 points
8 comments10 min readEA link

Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Ap­peals to the Com­plex­ity/​Mys­te­ri­ous­ness/​Effi­ciency of the Brain

kokotajlod18 Jan 2021 12:39 UTC
27 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Re­port on Run­ning a Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment at an EA Retreat

Hamish Huggard20 Feb 2021 5:55 UTC
48 points
4 comments17 min readEA link

BitBets: A Sim­ple Scor­ing Sys­tem for Fore­caster Training

Hamish Huggard18 Mar 2021 11:19 UTC
22 points
5 comments8 min readEA link

Re­port on Semi-in­for­ma­tive Pri­ors for AI timelines (Open Philan­thropy)

Tom_Davidson26 Mar 2021 17:46 UTC
62 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

Statis­tics for Lazy Peo­ple, Part 1

Hamish Huggard29 Mar 2021 10:59 UTC
44 points
3 comments4 min readEA link

Base Rates on United States Regime Collapse

AppliedDivinityStudies5 Apr 2021 17:14 UTC
14 points
3 comments9 min readEA link

Con­ver­sa­tion on fore­cast­ing with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen

jacobjacob30 Jul 2019 11:16 UTC
38 points
4 comments32 min readEA link

[Question] How can pre­dic­tion mar­kets be­come more trendy, le­gal, and ac­cessible?

ColinBested12 Mar 2019 20:04 UTC
8 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

Cur­rent Es­ti­mates for Like­li­hood of X-Risk?

rhys_lindmark6 Aug 2018 18:05 UTC
24 points
23 comments1 min readEA link

Sur­vey of 2018 EA Survey

DavidNash20 Dec 2018 17:29 UTC
26 points
2 commentsEA link

Statis­tics for Lazy Peo­ple, Part 2

Hamish Huggard14 Apr 2021 12:15 UTC
16 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Against pre­dic­tion markets

Denise_Melchin12 May 2018 12:08 UTC
25 points
23 commentsEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2021

NunoSempere1 Feb 2021 22:53 UTC
17 points
4 comments7 min readEA link

[Question] What pre­vi­ous work has been done on fac­tors that af­fect the pace of tech­nolog­i­cal de­vel­op­ment?

Megan Kinniment27 Apr 2021 18:43 UTC
21 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Eva Vi­valt: Fore­cast­ing re­search results

EA Global19 Feb 2020 16:34 UTC
17 points
0 comments11 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

In­ter­view with Prof Tet­lock on epistemic mod­esty, pre­dict­ing catas­trophic risks, AI, and more

80000_Hours20 Nov 2017 18:34 UTC
6 points
0 commentsEA link

Su­perfore­cast­ers [link]

RyanCarey20 Aug 2015 18:38 UTC
6 points
0 commentsEA link

Philip Tet­lock on why ac­cu­rate fore­cast­ing mat­ters for ev­ery­thing, and how you can do it better

80000_Hours28 Jun 2019 10:16 UTC
6 points
0 comments89 min readEA link

Philip Tet­lock: Fireside chat

EA Global4 Feb 2020 21:25 UTC
13 points
1 comment25 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Nar­ra­tion: Re­port on Run­ning a Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment at an EA Re­treat, part 1

D0TheMath13 Jul 2021 16:21 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(anchor.fm)

An ex­am­i­na­tion of Me­tac­u­lus’ re­solved AI pre­dic­tions and their im­pli­ca­tions for AI timelines

Charles Dillon 20 Jul 2021 9:07 UTC
69 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

Efforts to Im­prove the Ac­cu­racy of Our Judg­ments and Forecasts

lukeprog25 Oct 2016 13:13 UTC
4 points
0 comments28 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Self-Sus­tain­ing Fields Liter­a­ture Re­view: Tech­nol­ogy Fore­cast­ing, How Aca­demic Fields Emerge, and the Science of Science

Megan Kinniment6 Sep 2021 15:04 UTC
27 points
0 comments8 min readEA link

Tough enough? Ro­bust satis­fic­ing as a de­ci­sion norm for long-term policy analysis

Global Priorities Institute31 Oct 2020 13:28 UTC
3 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

In­ves­ti­gat­ing how tech­nol­ogy-fo­cused aca­demic fields be­come self-sustaining

Ben Snodin6 Sep 2021 15:04 UTC
42 points
4 comments44 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion: The long and the short of it

Global Priorities Institute30 Nov 2019 14:32 UTC
3 points
0 comments7 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

An anal­y­sis of Me­tac­u­lus pre­dic­tions of fu­ture EA re­sources, 2025 and 2030

Charles Dillon 22 Sep 2021 10:24 UTC
50 points
2 comments8 min readEA link

[Link post] Will we see fast AI Take­off?

SammyDMartin30 Sep 2021 14:03 UTC
18 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

How does fore­cast quan­tity im­pact fore­cast qual­ity on Me­tac­u­lus?

Charles Dillon 1 Oct 2021 18:57 UTC
47 points
12 comments8 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus seek­ing An­a­lyt­i­cal Sto­ry­tel­lers to write es­says for­tified with testable predictions

christian6 Oct 2021 4:39 UTC
16 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Help, Please: In­te­grat­ing EA Ideas into Large Re­search Organization

Lauren Zitney30 Oct 2021 1:23 UTC
37 points
11 comments4 min readEA link

Use Nor­mal Predictions

Jan Christian Refsgaard9 Jan 2022 17:52 UTC
12 points
1 comment6 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets in The Cor­po­rate Setting

NunoSempere31 Dec 2021 17:10 UTC
79 points
12 comments33 min readEA link

Fore­cast pro­ce­dure competitions

David Johnston10 Jan 2022 0:17 UTC
10 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

[Question] Where is a good place to start learn­ing about Fore­cast­ing?

Dvir Caspi14 Jan 2022 22:26 UTC
11 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

PSA: if you are in Rus­sia, prob­a­bly move out ASAP

anon_acct3 Mar 2022 21:55 UTC
142 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

Im­pact­ful Fore­cast­ing Prize Re­sults and Reflections

elifland29 Mar 2022 16:16 UTC
40 points
10 comments3 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2022

NunoSempere5 Apr 2022 18:28 UTC
21 points
3 comments7 min readEA link

Pro­posal for Fore­cast­ing Givewell-Char­ity Im­pact-Metrics

Patrick Gruban13 Apr 2022 10:21 UTC
28 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] Please Share Your Per­spec­tives on the De­gree of So­cietal Im­pact from Trans­for­ma­tive AI Outcomes

Kiliank15 Apr 2022 1:23 UTC
3 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Ra­tional pre­dic­tions of­ten up­date pre­dictably*

Gregory_Lewis15 May 2022 16:09 UTC
132 points
14 comments9 min readEA link

LW4EA: 16 types of use­ful predictions

Jeremy24 May 2022 3:19 UTC
14 points
2 comments2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Build­ing a Bet­ter Dooms­day Clock

christian.r25 May 2022 17:02 UTC
23 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lawfareblog.com)

Range and Fore­cast­ing Accuracy

niplav27 May 2022 19:08 UTC
20 points
4 comments40 min readEA link

Grokking “Fore­cast­ing TAI with biolog­i­cal an­chors”

anson.ho6 Jun 2022 18:56 UTC
43 points
0 comments14 min readEA link

Grokking “Semi-in­for­ma­tive pri­ors over AI timelines”

anson.ho12 Jun 2022 22:15 UTC
60 points
1 comment14 min readEA link

Red-team­ing Holden Karnofsky’s AI timelines

Vasco Grilo25 Jun 2022 14:24 UTC
54 points
2 comments15 min readEA link

[Question] Does any EA org try do a wholis­tic pre­dic­tion of global trends 20 years out?

ekka4 Jul 2022 3:36 UTC
6 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

[Op­por­tu­nity] Syn­thetic Biol­ogy Fore­cast­ers

ncmoulios4 Jul 2022 16:15 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Biose­cu­rity Tour­na­ment Round 1 Launch

Juan Cambeiro10 Jul 2022 14:54 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Me­tac­u­lus is seek­ing ex­pe­rienced lead­ers, re­searchers & op­er­a­tors for high-im­pact roles

christian10 Jul 2022 14:29 UTC
13 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(apply.workable.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2022

NunoSempere12 Jul 2022 12:35 UTC
49 points
4 comments9 min readEA link

Flag­ging up a ‘pre­dic­tion mar­ket’

Forumite12 Jul 2022 12:07 UTC
3 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Man­i­fold Mar­kets in­ter­view with Joel Becker

David Chee15 Jul 2022 20:33 UTC
13 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing “Cli­mate Change and the Long-term Fu­ture”

LuisEUrtubey23 Jul 2022 0:12 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Top open Me­tac­u­lus forecasts

EA Handbook20 Jul 2022 23:00 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2022

NunoSempere8 Aug 2022 8:03 UTC
30 points
0 comments14 min readEA link

Up­dat­ing on the pas­sage of time and con­di­tional pre­dic­tion curves

Jonas Moss11 Aug 2022 18:18 UTC
12 points
0 comments12 min readEA link

We’re re­ally bad at guess­ing the future

Benj Azose13 Aug 2022 9:11 UTC
19 points
2 comments6 min readEA link