RSS

Forecasting

TagLast edit: 14 May 2021 19:49 UTC by EA Wiki assistant

Forecasting can help us get a better sense of what will happen in the future, so that we can prepare appropriately. It is a significant aspect of EA strategy around pandemic preparedness (see biosecurity), AI alignment, animal product alternatives, and many other topics.

Bibliography

Aird, Michael (2020) Failures in technology forecasting? A reply to Ord and Yudkowsky, LessWrong, May 8.

Kokotajlo, Daniel (2019) Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post, AI Impacts.
An excellent summary of the evidence on good forecasting practices.

Lewis, Gregory (2020) Challenges in evaluating forecaster performance, Effective Altruism Forum, September 8.

Muehlhauser, Luke (2016) Evaluation of some technology forecasts from “The Year 2000”, Open Philanthropy, September.

Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.

Muehlhauser, Luke (2021) Superforecasting in a nutshell, Luke Muehlhauser’s Website, February 22.

Vivalt, Evalt (2020) Announcing the launch of the Social Science Prediction Platform!, Eva Vivalt’s Blog, July 7.

Wiblin, Robert (2017) Prof Tetlock on predicting catastrophes, why keep your politics secret, and when experts know more than you, 80,000 Hours, November 20.

Wiblin, Robert & Keiran Harris (2019) Accurately predicting the future is central to absolutely everything. Professor Tetlock has spent 40 years studying how to do it better, 80,000 Hours, June 28.

Related entries

AI forecasting | credence | estimating existential risk | improving institutional decision-making | long-range forecasting | Metaculus | model uncertainty | prediction markets | value of information

Ev­i­dence on good fore­cast­ing prac­tices from the Good Judg­ment Pro­ject: an ac­com­pa­ny­ing blog post

kokotajlod15 Feb 2019 19:14 UTC
68 points
13 comments21 min readEA link

Use re­silience, in­stead of im­pre­ci­sion, to com­mu­ni­cate uncertainty

Gregory_Lewis18 Jul 2020 12:09 UTC
84 points
32 comments7 min readEA link

Fore­casts about EA or­gani­sa­tions which are cur­rently on Me­tac­u­lus.

alexrjl29 Dec 2020 17:42 UTC
60 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA15 Apr 2020 12:43 UTC
87 points
35 comments5 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2020

NunoSempere30 Apr 2020 16:41 UTC
54 points
8 comments7 min readEA link

[Link] “How fea­si­ble is long-range fore­cast­ing?” (Open Phil)

Milan_Griffes11 Oct 2019 21:01 UTC
35 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] How valuable would more aca­demic re­search on fore­cast­ing be? What ques­tions should be re­searched?

MichaelA12 Aug 2020 7:19 UTC
22 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Metafore­cast: A Fore­cast Ag­gre­ga­tor and Search Tool

NunoSempere7 Mar 2021 19:03 UTC
115 points
15 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2020.

NunoSempere31 May 2020 12:35 UTC
35 points
3 comments20 min readEA link

Del­e­gate a forecast

amandango26 Jul 2020 5:05 UTC
41 points
43 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Nov 2020 13:00 UTC
34 points
2 comments4 min readEA link

Data on fore­cast­ing ac­cu­racy across differ­ent time hori­zons and lev­els of fore­caster experience

Charles_Dillon 27 May 2021 18:51 UTC
73 points
0 comments23 min readEA link

[Part 1] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – mod­els of im­pact and challenges

jacobjacob19 Dec 2019 18:16 UTC
53 points
2 comments17 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Fore­told.io: A New Open-Source Pre­dic­tion Registry

Ozzie Gooen16 Oct 2019 14:47 UTC
48 points
5 comments3 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

I’m Linch Zhang, an am­a­teur COVID-19 fore­caster and gen­er­al­ist EA. AMA

Linch30 Jun 2020 19:35 UTC
77 points
80 comments1 min readEA link

David Man­heim: A Per­sonal (In­terim) COVID-19 Postmortem

Linch1 Jul 2020 6:05 UTC
31 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

[Question] What ques­tions would you like to see fore­casts on from the Me­tac­u­lus com­mu­nity?

alexrjl26 Jul 2020 14:40 UTC
30 points
30 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2020.

NunoSempere1 Jul 2020 9:32 UTC
45 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

In­cen­tive Prob­lems With Cur­rent Fore­cast­ing Com­pe­ti­tions.

alexrjl10 Nov 2020 21:40 UTC
54 points
13 comments5 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing In­no­va­tion Prize

Ozzie Gooen15 Nov 2020 21:21 UTC
64 points
7 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: De­cem­ber 2020

NunoSempere1 Jan 2021 16:07 UTC
26 points
2 comments10 min readEA link

AMA: Ajeya Co­tra, re­searcher at Open Phil

Ajeya28 Jan 2021 17:38 UTC
83 points
107 comments1 min readEA link

Some global catas­trophic risk estimates

Tamay10 Feb 2021 19:32 UTC
99 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Thread: Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

amandango22 Sep 2020 20:51 UTC
24 points
4 comments2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2020 11:00 UTC
41 points
4 comments11 min readEA link

Es­ti­ma­tion and fore­cast­ing — an overview (Amanda Ngo)

EA Global25 Oct 2020 5:48 UTC
7 points
0 comments14 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

For­mal­is­ing the “Wash­ing Out Hy­poth­e­sis”

dwebb25 Mar 2021 11:40 UTC
84 points
24 comments12 min readEA link

We tried to pre­dict 2020. Here’s what we got right — and so very wrong.

EA Introductory Program4 Jan 2021 11:47 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.vox.com)

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund: April 2019 grant recommendations

Habryka23 Apr 2019 7:00 UTC
144 points
242 comments46 min readEA link

Con­cern­ing the Re­cent 2019-Novel Coron­avirus Outbreak

Matthew_Barnett27 Jan 2020 5:47 UTC
104 points
140 comments3 min readEA link

Tech­ni­cal AGI safety re­search out­side AI

richard_ngo18 Oct 2019 15:02 UTC
81 points
5 comments3 min readEA link

Po­ten­tial down­sides of us­ing ex­plicit probabilities

MichaelA20 Jan 2020 2:14 UTC
33 points
20 comments18 min readEA link

Will protests lead to thou­sands of coro­n­avirus deaths?

Larks3 Jun 2020 19:08 UTC
77 points
59 comments5 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2020.

NunoSempere1 Aug 2020 16:56 UTC
31 points
1 comment22 min readEA link

[Question] Will Three Gorges Dam Col­lapse And Kill Millions?

DonyChristie26 Jul 2020 2:43 UTC
77 points
9 comments3 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing the prob­a­bil­ity of ex­is­ten­tial catas­tro­phe: A re­ply to Beard et al.

MichaelA10 Aug 2020 5:56 UTC
21 points
3 comments3 min readEA link
(gcrinstitute.org)

[Question] How can good gen­er­al­ist judg­ment be differ­en­ti­ated from skill at fore­cast­ing?

Linch21 Aug 2020 23:13 UTC
22 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] How to es­ti­mate the EV of gen­eral in­tel­lec­tual progress

Ozzie Gooen27 Jan 2020 10:21 UTC
39 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dictably Pre­dictable Fu­tures Talk: Us­ing Ex­pected Loss & Pre­dic­tion In­no­va­tion for Long Term Benefits

Ozzie Gooen8 Jan 2020 22:19 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Some his­tory top­ics it might be very valuable to investigate

MichaelA8 Jul 2020 2:40 UTC
83 points
33 comments6 min readEA link

Challenges in eval­u­at­ing fore­caster performance

Gregory_Lewis8 Sep 2020 20:37 UTC
22 points
22 comments8 min readEA link

Judge­ment as a key need in EA

Benjamin_Todd12 Sep 2020 14:48 UTC
30 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

Pablo Staffor­ini’s Fore­cast­ing System

jungofthewon16 Sep 2020 20:46 UTC
70 points
9 comments11 min readEA link

Es­ti­ma­tion of prob­a­bil­ities to get tenure track in academia: baseline and pub­li­ca­tions dur­ing the PhD.

PabloAMC20 Sep 2020 18:32 UTC
35 points
9 comments6 min readEA link

Some learn­ings I had from fore­cast­ing in 2020

Linch3 Oct 2020 19:21 UTC
77 points
8 comments3 min readEA link

In­sta­bil­ity risks of the up­com­ing U.S. elec­tion and recom­men­da­tions for EAs

Juan Cambeiro3 Nov 2020 1:19 UTC
30 points
1 comment5 min readEA link

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

kokotajlod7 Nov 2020 12:45 UTC
33 points
10 comments2 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Ben­tham Prize

Pablo21 Jan 2020 22:23 UTC
32 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

[Link] The Op­ti­mizer’s Curse & Wrong-Way Reductions

Chris Smith4 Apr 2019 13:28 UTC
75 points
61 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Needed: Vol­un­teer fore­cast­ers for Fish Welfare Initiative

haven21 Nov 2020 19:15 UTC
18 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

AGI Predictions

Pablo21 Nov 2020 12:02 UTC
36 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Pre­dict­ing the Value of Small Altru­is­tic Pro­jects: A Proof of Con­cept Ex­per­i­ment.

NunoSempere22 Nov 2020 20:07 UTC
51 points
3 comments11 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Dec 2020 17:00 UTC
33 points
0 comments12 min readEA link

[Question] How might bet­ter col­lec­tive de­ci­sion-mak­ing back­fire?

Denis Drescher13 Dec 2020 11:44 UTC
32 points
21 comments2 min readEA link

2020: Fore­cast­ing in Review

NunoSempere10 Jan 2021 16:05 UTC
35 points
7 comments10 min readEA link

[Pod­cast] Rob Wiblin on self-im­prove­ment and re­search ethics

MichaelA15 Jan 2021 7:24 UTC
8 points
7 comments1 min readEA link
(clearerthinkingpodcast.com)

How Can Donors In­cen­tivize Good Pre­dic­tions on Im­por­tant but Un­pop­u­lar Topics?

MichaelDickens3 Feb 2019 1:11 UTC
27 points
4 commentsEA link

Com­plex clue­less­ness as credal fragility

Gregory_Lewis8 Feb 2021 16:59 UTC
45 points
50 comments23 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Prize Results

NunoSempere19 Feb 2021 19:07 UTC
44 points
5 comments6 min readEA link

Some EA Fo­rum Posts I’d like to write

Linch23 Feb 2021 5:27 UTC
83 points
10 comments7 min readEA link

[Part 2] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – re­sults from a pre­limi­nary exploration

jacobjacob19 Dec 2019 16:36 UTC
31 points
1 comment14 min readEA link

Su­perfore­cast­ing in a nutshell

lukeprog25 Feb 2021 6:11 UTC
29 points
2 comments4 min readEA link
(lukemuehlhauser.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2021

NunoSempere1 Mar 2021 20:29 UTC
19 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

Q&A with Philip Tet­lock (2016)

EA Global5 Aug 2016 9:19 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Owen Cot­ton-Bar­ratt, Robin Han­son, Ja­son Ma­theny, and Ju­lia Galef: Forecasting

EA Global5 Aug 2016 9:19 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

In­creas­ing the Ac­cu­racy of Our Judg­ments: In­ter­ac­tive exercise

EA Introductory Program1 Jan 2021 11:55 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

In­creas­ing the Ac­cu­racy of Our Judg­ments: More to explore

EA Introductory Program1 Jan 2021 11:49 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2021

NunoSempere1 Apr 2021 17:01 UTC
22 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

On AI and Compute

johncrox3 Apr 2019 21:26 UTC
39 points
12 comments8 min readEA link

Draft re­port on AI timelines

Ajeya15 Dec 2020 12:10 UTC
28 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(alignmentforum.org)

AI Fore­cast­ing Re­s­olu­tion Coun­cil (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 2)

jacobjacob29 Aug 2019 17:43 UTC
28 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Dic­tionary (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 1)

jacobjacob8 Aug 2019 13:16 UTC
18 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

AI Fore­cast­ing Ques­tion Database (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 3)

jacobjacob3 Sep 2019 14:57 UTC
23 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

Against GDP as a met­ric for timelines and take­off speeds

kokotajlod29 Dec 2020 17:50 UTC
41 points
6 comments14 min readEA link

Atari early

AI Impacts2 Apr 2020 23:28 UTC
34 points
2 comments5 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

[Question] Are there su­perfore­casts for ex­is­ten­tial risk?

Alex HT7 Jul 2020 7:39 UTC
24 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

Rele­vant pre-AGI possibilities

kokotajlod20 Jun 2020 13:15 UTC
22 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

Light­ning talks from EA Global: San Fran­cisco (2018)

EA Global8 Jun 2018 20:51 UTC
6 points
0 comments11 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2021

NunoSempere1 May 2021 15:58 UTC
21 points
0 comments10 min readEA link

Efforts to Im­prove the Ac­cu­racy of Our Judg­ments and Fore­casts (Open Philan­thropy)

EA Introductory Program25 Oct 2016 10:09 UTC
11 points
0 comments29 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

David Rhys Bernard: Es­ti­mat­ing long-term effects with­out long-term data

EA Global6 Jul 2020 15:16 UTC
20 points
0 comments18 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

An­nounc­ing the UK Covid-19 Crowd Fore­cast­ing Challenge

nikos17 May 2021 19:28 UTC
7 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] What im­por­tant ques­tions are miss­ing from Me­tac­u­lus?

Charles_Dillon 26 May 2021 14:03 UTC
37 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2021

NunoSempere1 Jun 2021 15:51 UTC
23 points
2 comments11 min readEA link

Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA7 Apr 2020 2:19 UTC
54 points
31 comments9 min readEA link

Does gen­er­al­ity pay? GPT-3 can provide pre­limi­nary ev­i­dence.

evelynciara12 Jul 2020 18:53 UTC
20 points
4 comments2 min readEA link

Donor Lot­tery Debrief

TimothyTelleenLawton4 Aug 2020 20:58 UTC
121 points
15 comments5 min readEA link

The ap­pli­ca­bil­ity of transsen­tien­tist crit­i­cal path analysis

Peter Sølling11 Aug 2020 11:26 UTC
0 points
2 comments32 min readEA link
(www.optimalaltruism.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2020.

NunoSempere1 Sep 2020 11:35 UTC
22 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

EA Uni Group Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment!

avshah18 Sep 2020 16:35 UTC
62 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

Quan­tum com­put­ing timelines

Jsevillamol15 Sep 2020 14:15 UTC
18 points
6 comments3 min readEA link

Au­tomat­ing rea­son­ing about the fu­ture at Ought

jungofthewon9 Nov 2020 22:30 UTC
19 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(ought.org)

Ten Com­mand­ments for Aspiring Su­perfore­cast­ers

Evan_Gaensbauer25 Apr 2018 5:07 UTC
19 points
3 commentsEA link

Bi­nary pre­dic­tion database and tournament

amandango17 Nov 2020 18:09 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Helping fu­ture re­searchers to bet­ter un­der­stand long-term forecasting

gabriel_wagner25 Nov 2020 18:55 UTC
2 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

In­cen­tiviz­ing fore­cast­ing via so­cial media

David_Althaus16 Dec 2020 12:11 UTC
69 points
19 comments18 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing of Pri­ori­ties: a tool for effec­tive poli­ti­cal par­ti­ci­pa­tion?

janklenha31 Dec 2020 15:24 UTC
27 points
8 comments7 min readEA link

One’s Fu­ture Be­hav­ior as a Do­main of Calibration

markus_over31 Dec 2020 15:48 UTC
17 points
6 comments10 min readEA link

Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Ap­peals to the Com­plex­ity/​Mys­te­ri­ous­ness/​Effi­ciency of the Brain

kokotajlod18 Jan 2021 12:39 UTC
25 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Re­port on Run­ning a Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment at an EA Retreat

Hamish Huggard20 Feb 2021 5:55 UTC
43 points
3 comments17 min readEA link

BitBets: A Sim­ple Scor­ing Sys­tem for Fore­caster Training

Hamish Huggard18 Mar 2021 11:19 UTC
21 points
5 comments8 min readEA link

Re­port on Semi-in­for­ma­tive Pri­ors for AI timelines (Open Philan­thropy)

Tom_Davidson26 Mar 2021 17:46 UTC
62 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

Statis­tics for Lazy Peo­ple, Part 1

Hamish Huggard29 Mar 2021 10:59 UTC
40 points
3 comments4 min readEA link

Base Rates on United States Regime Collapse

AppliedDivinityStudies5 Apr 2021 17:14 UTC
12 points
3 comments9 min readEA link

Con­ver­sa­tion on fore­cast­ing with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen

jacobjacob30 Jul 2019 11:16 UTC
37 points
4 comments32 min readEA link

[Question] How can pre­dic­tion mar­kets be­come more trendy, le­gal, and ac­cessible?

ColinBested12 Mar 2019 20:04 UTC
8 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

Cur­rent Es­ti­mates for Like­li­hood of X-Risk?

rhys_lindmark6 Aug 2018 18:05 UTC
24 points
23 comments1 min readEA link

Sur­vey of 2018 EA Survey

DavidNash20 Dec 2018 17:29 UTC
26 points
2 commentsEA link

Statis­tics for Lazy Peo­ple, Part 2

Hamish Huggard14 Apr 2021 12:15 UTC
15 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Against pre­dic­tion markets

Denise_Melchin12 May 2018 12:08 UTC
19 points
23 commentsEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2021

NunoSempere1 Feb 2021 22:53 UTC
17 points
4 comments7 min readEA link

[Question] What pre­vi­ous work has been done on fac­tors that af­fect the pace of tech­nolog­i­cal de­vel­op­ment?

Megan Kinniment27 Apr 2021 18:43 UTC
21 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

Eva Vi­valt: Fore­cast­ing re­search results

EA Global19 Feb 2020 16:34 UTC
16 points
0 comments11 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

In­ter­view with Prof Tet­lock on epistemic mod­esty, pre­dict­ing catas­trophic risks, AI, and more

80000_Hours20 Nov 2017 18:34 UTC
6 points
0 commentsEA link

Su­perfore­cast­ers [link]

RyanCarey20 Aug 2015 18:38 UTC
6 points
0 commentsEA link

Philip Tet­lock on why ac­cu­rate fore­cast­ing mat­ters for ev­ery­thing, and how you can do it better

80000_Hours28 Jun 2019 10:16 UTC
6 points
0 comments89 min readEA link

Philip Tet­lock: Fireside chat

EA Global4 Feb 2020 21:25 UTC
13 points
1 comment25 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)
No comments.