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Forecasting

TagLast edit: 25 Aug 2020 7:28 UTC by MichaelA

Fore­cast­ing can help us get a bet­ter sense of what will hap­pen in the fu­ture, so that we can pre­pare ap­pro­pri­ately. It is a sig­nifi­cant as­pect of EA strat­egy around pan­demic pre­pared­ness, AI al­ign­ment, and many other top­ics. To learn more, we recom­mend this post.

See also Im­prov­ing In­sti­tu­tional De­ci­sion-Mak­ing.

Use re­silience, in­stead of im­pre­ci­sion, to com­mu­ni­cate uncertainty

Gregory_Lewis18 Jul 2020 12:09 UTC
83 points
22 comments7 min readEA link

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA15 Apr 2020 12:43 UTC
77 points
28 comments5 min readEA link

[Link] “How fea­si­ble is long-range fore­cast­ing?” (Open Phil)

Milan_Griffes11 Oct 2019 21:01 UTC
35 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] How valuable would more aca­demic re­search on fore­cast­ing be? What ques­tions should be re­searched?

MichaelA12 Aug 2020 7:19 UTC
21 points
7 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2020.

NunoSempere31 May 2020 12:35 UTC
35 points
3 comments20 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2020

NunoSempere30 Apr 2020 16:41 UTC
54 points
8 comments7 min readEA link

Del­e­gate a forecast

amandango26 Jul 2020 5:05 UTC
39 points
43 comments2 min readEA link

Ev­i­dence on good fore­cast­ing prac­tices from the Good Judg­ment Pro­ject: an ac­com­pa­ny­ing blog post

kokotajlod15 Feb 2019 19:14 UTC
66 points
13 comments21 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Fore­told.io: A New Open-Source Pre­dic­tion Registry

Ozzie Gooen16 Oct 2019 14:47 UTC
48 points
5 comments3 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

I’m Linch Zhang, an am­a­teur COVID-19 fore­caster and gen­er­al­ist EA. AMA

Linch30 Jun 2020 19:35 UTC
80 points
80 comments1 min readEA link

David Man­heim: A Per­sonal (In­terim) COVID-19 Postmortem

Linch1 Jul 2020 6:05 UTC
31 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

[Question] What ques­tions would you like to see fore­casts on from the Me­tac­u­lus com­mu­nity?

alexrjl26 Jul 2020 14:40 UTC
29 points
30 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2020

NunoSempere1 Jul 2020 9:32 UTC
45 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Thread: Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

amandango22 Sep 2020 20:51 UTC
22 points
4 comments2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund: April 2019 grant recommendations

Habryka23 Apr 2019 7:00 UTC
143 points
240 comments46 min readEA link

Con­cern­ing the Re­cent 2019-Novel Coron­avirus Outbreak

Matthew_Barnett27 Jan 2020 5:47 UTC
102 points
139 comments3 min readEA link

Tech­ni­cal AGI safety re­search out­side AI

richard_ngo18 Oct 2019 15:02 UTC
80 points
5 comments3 min readEA link

[Part 1] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – mod­els of im­pact and challenges

jacobjacob19 Dec 2019 18:16 UTC
53 points
2 comments17 min readEA link

Po­ten­tial down­sides of us­ing ex­plicit probabilities

MichaelA20 Jan 2020 2:14 UTC
28 points
17 comments18 min readEA link

Will protests lead to thou­sands of coro­n­avirus deaths?

Larks3 Jun 2020 19:08 UTC
77 points
59 comments5 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2020.

NunoSempere1 Aug 2020 16:56 UTC
31 points
1 comment22 min readEA link

[Question] Will Three Gorges Dam Col­lapse And Kill Millions?

DonyChristie26 Jul 2020 2:43 UTC
76 points
9 comments3 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing the prob­a­bil­ity of ex­is­ten­tial catas­tro­phe: A re­ply to Beard et al.

MichaelA10 Aug 2020 5:56 UTC
19 points
3 comments3 min readEA link
(gcrinstitute.org)

[Question] How can good gen­er­al­ist judg­ment be differ­en­ti­ated from skill at fore­cast­ing?

Linch21 Aug 2020 23:13 UTC
20 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] How to es­ti­mate the EV of gen­eral in­tel­lec­tual progress

Ozzie Gooen27 Jan 2020 10:21 UTC
38 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dictably Pre­dictable Fu­tures Talk: Us­ing Ex­pected Loss & Pre­dic­tion In­no­va­tion for Long Term Benefits

Ozzie Gooen8 Jan 2020 22:19 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Some his­tory top­ics it might be very valuable to investigate

MichaelA8 Jul 2020 2:40 UTC
75 points
25 comments6 min readEA link

Challenges in eval­u­at­ing fore­caster performance

Gregory_Lewis8 Sep 2020 20:37 UTC
21 points
22 comments8 min readEA link

Judge­ment as a key need in EA

Benjamin_Todd12 Sep 2020 14:48 UTC
30 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

Pablo Staffor­ini’s Fore­cast­ing System

jungofthewon16 Sep 2020 20:46 UTC
62 points
9 comments11 min readEA link

Es­ti­ma­tion of prob­a­bil­ities to get tenure track in academia: baseline and pub­li­ca­tions dur­ing the PhD.

PabloAMC20 Sep 2020 18:32 UTC
24 points
8 comments6 min readEA link

Some learn­ings I had from fore­cast­ing in 2020

Linch3 Oct 2020 19:21 UTC
65 points
8 comments3 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2020 11:00 UTC
40 points
4 comments11 min readEA link

Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA7 Apr 2020 2:19 UTC
50 points
31 comments9 min readEA link

Does gen­er­al­ity pay? GPT-3 can provide pre­limi­nary ev­i­dence.

evelynciara12 Jul 2020 18:53 UTC
19 points
4 comments2 min readEA link

Donor Lot­tery Debrief

TimothyTelleenLawton4 Aug 2020 20:58 UTC
118 points
15 comments5 min readEA link

The ap­pli­ca­bil­ity of transsen­tien­tist crit­i­cal path analysis

Peter Sølling11 Aug 2020 11:26 UTC
0 points
2 comments32 min readEA link
(www.optimalaltruism.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2020.

NunoSempere1 Sep 2020 11:35 UTC
22 points
1 comment6 min readEA link

EA Uni Group Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment!

avshah18 Sep 2020 16:35 UTC
55 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

Quan­tum com­put­ing timelines

Jsevillamol15 Sep 2020 14:15 UTC
17 points
6 comments3 min readEA link