Forecasting can help us get a better sense of what will happen in the future, so that we can prepare appropriately. It is a significant aspect of EA strategy around pandemic preparedness (see biosecurity), AI alignment, animal product alternatives, and many other topics.
Aird, Michael (2020) Failures in technology forecasting? A reply to Ord and Yudkowsky, LessWrong, May 8.
Kokotajlo, Daniel (2019) Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post, AI Impacts.
An excellent summary of the evidence on good forecasting practices.
Lewis, Gregory (2020) Challenges in evaluating forecaster performance, Effective Altruism Forum, September 8.
Muehlhauser, Luke (2016) Evaluation of some technology forecasts from “The Year 2000”, Open Philanthropy, September.
Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.
Muehlhauser, Luke (2021) Superforecasting in a nutshell, Luke Muehlhauser’s Website, February 22.
Tetlock, Expert Political Judgement
Vivalt, Evalt (2020) Announcing the launch of the Social Science Prediction Platform!, Eva Vivalt’s Blog, July 7.
Wiblin, Robert (2017) Prof Tetlock on predicting catastrophes, why keep your politics secret, and when experts know more than you, 80,000 Hours, November 20.
Wiblin, Robert & Keiran Harris (2019) Accurately predicting the future is central to absolutely everything. Professor Tetlock has spent 40 years studying how to do it better, 80,000 Hours, June 28.
AI forecasting | credence | estimation of existential risk | institutional decision-making | inside vs. outside view | long-range forecasting | Metaculus | model uncertainty | prediction markets | value of information