I didn’t mean to imply that no one had noticed any issues until now. I talk about this a bit more in the podcast, where I mention people like Robin Hanson and Katja Grace as examples of people who wrote good critiques more than a decade ago, and I believe mention you as someone who’s had a different take on AI risk.
Over the past 2-3 years, it seems like a lot of people in the community (myself included) have become more skeptical of the classic arguments. I think this has at least partly been the result of new criticisms or improved formulations of old criticisms surfacing. For example, Paul’s 2018 post arguing against a “fast takeoff” seems to have been pretty influential in shifting views within the community. But I don’t think there’s any clear reason this post couldn’t have been written in the mid-2000s.
Hi Wei,
I didn’t mean to imply that no one had noticed any issues until now. I talk about this a bit more in the podcast, where I mention people like Robin Hanson and Katja Grace as examples of people who wrote good critiques more than a decade ago, and I believe mention you as someone who’s had a different take on AI risk.
Over the past 2-3 years, it seems like a lot of people in the community (myself included) have become more skeptical of the classic arguments. I think this has at least partly been the result of new criticisms or improved formulations of old criticisms surfacing. For example, Paul’s 2018 post arguing against a “fast takeoff” seems to have been pretty influential in shifting views within the community. But I don’t think there’s any clear reason this post couldn’t have been written in the mid-2000s.