I think it’s fairly clear which of these are the main factors, and which are not. Explanations (3-5) and (7) do not account for the recent decline, because they have always been true. Also, (6) is a weak explanation, because the quality wasn’t substantially worse than an average post.
On the other hand, (1-2) +/- (8) fit perfectly with the fact that volume has increased over the last 18 months, over the same period as community-building has happened on a large scale. And I can’t think of any major contributors outside of (1-8), so I think the main causes are simply community dilution + a flood of newbies.
Though the other factors could still partially explain why the level (as opposed to the trend) isn’t better, and arguably the level is what we’re ultimately interested in.
I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss (3-5) and (7) as factors we should pay attention to. These sorts of memetic pressures are present in many communities, and yet communities vary dramatically in quality. This is because things like (3-5) and (7) can be modulated by other facts about the community:
How intrinsically susceptible are people to clickbait?
Have they been taught things like politics is the mind-killer and the dangers of platforms where controversial ideas outcompete broadly good ones?
What is the variance in how busy people are?
To what degree do people feel like they can weigh in on meta? To what degree can they weigh in on cause areas that are not their own?
Are the people on EA Forum mostly trying for impact, or to feel like they’re part of a community (including instrumentally towards impact)?
So even if they cannot be solely reponsible for changes, they could have been necessary to produce any declines in quality we’ve observed, and be important for the future.
I agree that (4) could be modulated by the character of the community. The same is true for (3,5), except that, the direction is wrong. Old-timers are more likely to be professional EAs, and know more about the community, so their decreased prevalence should reduce problems from (3,5). And (7) seems more like an effect of the changing nature of the forum, rather than a cause of it.
I think it’s fairly clear which of these are the main factors, and which are not. Explanations (3-5) and (7) do not account for the recent decline, because they have always been true. Also, (6) is a weak explanation, because the quality wasn’t substantially worse than an average post.
On the other hand, (1-2) +/- (8) fit perfectly with the fact that volume has increased over the last 18 months, over the same period as community-building has happened on a large scale. And I can’t think of any major contributors outside of (1-8), so I think the main causes are simply community dilution + a flood of newbies.
Though the other factors could still partially explain why the level (as opposed to the trend) isn’t better, and arguably the level is what we’re ultimately interested in.
I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss (3-5) and (7) as factors we should pay attention to. These sorts of memetic pressures are present in many communities, and yet communities vary dramatically in quality. This is because things like (3-5) and (7) can be modulated by other facts about the community:
How intrinsically susceptible are people to clickbait?
Have they been taught things like politics is the mind-killer and the dangers of platforms where controversial ideas outcompete broadly good ones?
What is the variance in how busy people are?
To what degree do people feel like they can weigh in on meta? To what degree can they weigh in on cause areas that are not their own?
Are the people on EA Forum mostly trying for impact, or to feel like they’re part of a community (including instrumentally towards impact)?
So even if they cannot be solely reponsible for changes, they could have been necessary to produce any declines in quality we’ve observed, and be important for the future.
I agree that (4) could be modulated by the character of the community. The same is true for (3,5), except that, the direction is wrong. Old-timers are more likely to be professional EAs, and know more about the community, so their decreased prevalence should reduce problems from (3,5). And (7) seems more like an effect of the changing nature of the forum, rather than a cause of it.