One reaction I’ve seen in several places, mostly outside EA, is something like, “this was obviously a fraud from the start, look at all the red flags, how could EAs have been so credulous?” I think this is mostly wrong: the red flags they cite (size of FTX’s claimed profits, located in the Bahamas, involved in crypto, relatively young founders, etc.) are not actually strong indicators here. Cause for scrutiny, sure, but short of anything obviously wrong.
I’m not sure there’s a big difference between ‘cause for scrutiny’ and ‘insufficient warning flags’ here. It seems like there were many causes for scrutiny, all of which were basically ignored by the people who could have acted on them. Had those influential people been more diligent, presumably these concerns would have loomed larger, and this might have been foreseen.
I’m not sure there’s a big difference between ‘cause for scrutiny’ and ‘insufficient warning flags’ here. It seems like there were many causes for scrutiny, all of which were basically ignored by the people who could have acted on them. Had those influential people been more diligent, presumably these concerns would have loomed larger, and this might have been foreseen.