Agree with Alex. The clincher for me is the Climeworks assessment. If you have a range of candidate technologies which will remove Co2 from the atmosphere, then cost must be a factor. If a candidate is expensive and has no path to becoming cheap, it doesn’t matter that it’s amazing by all other metrics. This seems basic.
Giving Green talk about the near certainty of Climeworks. This tells you that the expected cost per tonne of Co2 right now is close to £1,150 (https://climeworks.com/subscriptions), perhaps plus or minus £5, making the “true” cost £1,145 - £1,155.
On the other hand, other charities might have a broader range. For example I believe CfRN has a “true” cost between $5 - $30 to reach the same reduction in Co2. This is a broader range ($25 vs £10). Yet CfRN is clearly better (by a factor of 38 − 230!) We can disagree about the exact numbers: the point is that cost effectiveness shouldn’t be left out of charity assessment.
The near certainty of Climeworks may give peace of mind for some. However it’s an adjunct to cost, no more.
On future value. Climeworks themselves aim to get to $100 per tonne by 2025, so one might give in expectation of helping to bring about this price. Alex mentions Metaculus’ forecasts, which can be used to calculate how probable this theory of change might be. Cost (current or future) should always be considered.
Agree with Alex. The clincher for me is the Climeworks assessment. If you have a range of candidate technologies which will remove Co2 from the atmosphere, then cost must be a factor. If a candidate is expensive and has no path to becoming cheap, it doesn’t matter that it’s amazing by all other metrics. This seems basic.
Giving Green talk about the near certainty of Climeworks. This tells you that the expected cost per tonne of Co2 right now is close to £1,150 (https://climeworks.com/subscriptions), perhaps plus or minus £5, making the “true” cost £1,145 - £1,155.
On the other hand, other charities might have a broader range. For example I believe CfRN has a “true” cost between $5 - $30 to reach the same reduction in Co2. This is a broader range ($25 vs £10). Yet CfRN is clearly better (by a factor of 38 − 230!) We can disagree about the exact numbers: the point is that cost effectiveness shouldn’t be left out of charity assessment.
The near certainty of Climeworks may give peace of mind for some. However it’s an adjunct to cost, no more.
On future value. Climeworks themselves aim to get to $100 per tonne by 2025, so one might give in expectation of helping to bring about this price. Alex mentions Metaculus’ forecasts, which can be used to calculate how probable this theory of change might be. Cost (current or future) should always be considered.