This is a bit of a random point on offsets, and one where I agree more with Giving Green than some of the commenters, but when we include offsets in the portfolio (which I lean against but leaving this aside), I don’t think it necessarily makes sense to focus on cost-effectiveness.
Most actors use offsets to compensate a particular amount of emissions and will not change the amount of offsetting based on cost. Consumer surplus of people rich enough to buy offsets is not necessarily very morally relevant (if at all).
So, there are other considerations that might be more important. In my mind, these are two: 1) How large are the benefits that are co-benefits beyond the carbon saved? 2) How likely is it that this offset recommendation will lead to more effective behavior in the future (or, even better, that the page in which the offset is presented directly leads to a better action in the present), e.g. to donations to advocacy charities? [Edit: I actually believe this >70% of the importance, because the gain from shifting people to effective charity is much more significant given the impact of direct action (offsets) will always be low which then also holds for the co-benefits]
This is why I think Climeworks is the best offset in the Giving Green set.
Yes, it is obviously very expensive, but rich people can afford it. But it has relatively clear co-benefits (driving down of cost curve) and—crucially—it embeds with the reader the lesson that driving down technology cost is an important lever to make progress for climate.
One could then also combine it with a focus on Carbon180, saying something like “Hey, if you REALLY REALLY want to be certain you can buy those Climeworks offsets, but here is an idea: Why don’t you give the same amount to Carbon180 instead, a charity that not only focuses on direct air capture, but rather that is focused on policy advocacy on accelerating all carbon removal technologies. From all we know, this will be much more cost-effective and more robust because this will also be good if we find in 5 years that direct air capture will never be cheap.”
Given how expensive Climeworks is I think even those of us more skeptical of the enormous cost-effectiveness of advocacy charity would agree that this statement is true (you only have to believe that Carbon180 saves carbon for less than 1000 USD/t, which is an incredibly low bar for an advocacy charity with proven track record of policy influence such as Carbon180).
I think the extent to which I agree on this depends pretty heavily on context. If we’re talking about a major company which wants to use offsets to claim that it’s carbon neutral, then inelasticity with respect to cost makes sense (though even then I’m not totally convinced the elasticity is literally 0). I think this is importantly not true when it comes to, for lack of a better phrase “retail” offsetters.
i.e. the sort of people who might want to offset their yearly carbon emissions, or a flight that they feel guilty about. In this case, I think presenting a very expensive option as being best risks causing them to choose nothing at all rather than either a cheaper offset or offsetting as much as they can afford.
In practice, I think everyone would much rather this sort of donor was steered away from offsets altogether, but in the case where they aren’t, I think cost effectiveness makes sense. This logic seems to weakly apply to companies as well, in the sense that it may be one or two people pushing the comany to make a commitment from the inside, and I can see the probability that those people are successful being at least somewhat dependent on the size of the ask.
This is a bit of a random point on offsets, and one where I agree more with Giving Green than some of the commenters, but when we include offsets in the portfolio (which I lean against but leaving this aside), I don’t think it necessarily makes sense to focus on cost-effectiveness.
Most actors use offsets to compensate a particular amount of emissions and will not change the amount of offsetting based on cost. Consumer surplus of people rich enough to buy offsets is not necessarily very morally relevant (if at all).
So, there are other considerations that might be more important. In my mind, these are two:
1) How large are the benefits that are co-benefits beyond the carbon saved?
2) How likely is it that this offset recommendation will lead to more effective behavior in the future (or, even better, that the page in which the offset is presented directly leads to a better action in the present), e.g. to donations to advocacy charities? [Edit: I actually believe this >70% of the importance, because the gain from shifting people to effective charity is much more significant given the impact of direct action (offsets) will always be low which then also holds for the co-benefits]
This is why I think Climeworks is the best offset in the Giving Green set.
Yes, it is obviously very expensive, but rich people can afford it. But it has relatively clear co-benefits (driving down of cost curve) and—crucially—it embeds with the reader the lesson that driving down technology cost is an important lever to make progress for climate.
One could then also combine it with a focus on Carbon180, saying something like “Hey, if you REALLY REALLY want to be certain you can buy those Climeworks offsets, but here is an idea: Why don’t you give the same amount to Carbon180 instead, a charity that not only focuses on direct air capture, but rather that is focused on policy advocacy on accelerating all carbon removal technologies. From all we know, this will be much more cost-effective and more robust because this will also be good if we find in 5 years that direct air capture will never be cheap.”
Given how expensive Climeworks is I think even those of us more skeptical of the enormous cost-effectiveness of advocacy charity would agree that this statement is true (you only have to believe that Carbon180 saves carbon for less than 1000 USD/t, which is an incredibly low bar for an advocacy charity with proven track record of policy influence such as Carbon180).
I think the extent to which I agree on this depends pretty heavily on context. If we’re talking about a major company which wants to use offsets to claim that it’s carbon neutral, then inelasticity with respect to cost makes sense (though even then I’m not totally convinced the elasticity is literally 0). I think this is importantly not true when it comes to, for lack of a better phrase “retail” offsetters.
i.e. the sort of people who might want to offset their yearly carbon emissions, or a flight that they feel guilty about. In this case, I think presenting a very expensive option as being best risks causing them to choose nothing at all rather than either a cheaper offset or offsetting as much as they can afford.
In practice, I think everyone would much rather this sort of donor was steered away from offsets altogether, but in the case where they aren’t, I think cost effectiveness makes sense. This logic seems to weakly apply to companies as well, in the sense that it may be one or two people pushing the comany to make a commitment from the inside, and I can see the probability that those people are successful being at least somewhat dependent on the size of the ask.