Other than the clarification in my other comment, I think the most important disagreement we have is about Sunrise, so I’m going to primarily talk about that.
Neglectedness
it’s true that TSM’s budget has grown massively over the last few years (as has CATF’s for that matter), but I think that’s a poor proxy for neglectedness. I think that there is very little effective climate activism happening out there, and there’s huge room for effective growth.
TSM’s budget growing by 1.5 orders of magnitude since 2015 isn’t sufficient to show that they aren’t neglected, but I think it is sufficient to show that donations data from 2015 should not be relied on to make the case for neglectedness, especially as arguably the most famous activist in the cause area also didn’t start campaigning until 3 years later.
The claim that “there’s very little effective climate activism happening” is very different from the claim that climate activism in general is neglected, and I think may well be true, but that claim only applies to TSM if their activism is unusually effective compared to progressive activism more broadly (which is far from neglected), and I don’t think you’ve shown that. To the extent that TSM has goals, which is somewhat limited, those goals seem to be very typical of progressive climate activism in general, which as discussed is extremely far from being neglected. Sunrise Seattle’s open opposition to cap and trade is one recent example.
Sign of Impact
I would just say that [the impact may be negative] is lobbed at a lot of organizations, since people have different theories of political change.
Isn’t the whole point of doing charity evaluation as opposed to just donating wherever you like that you can evaluate whether these sorts of claims are credible? I appreciate that you’re time pressured and am grateful for the time you’ve already given but I was really hoping for more than just “other organisations have this lobbed at them too”.
It doesn’t really feel consistent to me to take the position when comparing [donate to TSM] and [donate to CATF] that “there’s loads of uncertainty so we won’t make the call”, but then when comparing [Recommend TSM as they are +EV] to [Don’t recommend TSM as they are -EV], take the position “sure there’s loads of uncertainty but on balance the former is the best option”. What’s the difference I’m missing between the two cases?
Hi Alex, let me clarify my thoughts on the “unsure of sign” argument. Let’s say for a given charity, you are considering the sign of impact on some outcome given an increase in donations. Given inherent uncertainly, you might think of a having a probability distribution reflecting your belief on the effect of a donation on this outcome. In almost any case, you would have to believe that there is some non-zero portion of the probability mass of this distribution below zero (because we’ve seen good intentions backfire so many times.) This is my point: the sign of impact is always unknown, technically.
To make recommendation, one must use gathered evidence and judgment to determine the distribution of impacts, and whether this estimated distribution merits a recommendation. Based on our judgement, the distribution of potential impacts of Sunrise (including the mass of probability that is below zero) merits it a recommendation. You and others certainly can disagree with the estimated distribution of impacts or our judgement or whether it merits recommendation. This stuff isn’t easy. But the fact that there is some probability mass on negative impact is not disqualifying, nor should it be.
As for your first comment, it’s important to note that the local chapters of Sunrise can take policy positions at odds with the centralized movement. I agree that sometimes these are unsavory. But when you make a donation, you make it to the centralized org. Critics trying to take down Sunrise frequently pull out the most radical quote they can find from one of the local chapters and use it to disqualify the whole organization, but I don’t really think that’s valid.
It feels like we’re talking past each other a bit, so I’m going to try to clarify my position below but not add anything new. I don’t think the reply above adresses it, but that could well be due to lack of clarity on my part.
Sign of impact
I don’t think the problem with TSM is that there’s non-zero probability mass on negative outcomes. This is, as you point out, true for basically anything.
My issue with TSM is that, for the reasons laid out above, I think the probability mass on negative outcomes is extremely signficant, especially when compared to other good options, for example CATF. This would be enough to make it underperform CATF in expectation even if it had similar upside, though I don’t actually think it does.
Consistency
To make recommendations, one must use gathered evidence and judgment to determine the distribution of impacts, and whether this estimated distribution merits a recommendation...
...This stuff isn’t easy. But the fact that there is some probability mass on negative impact is not disqualifying, nor should it be.
I agree with this. In fact, I still agree with it when the following words are added:
To make recommendations about preferring one organisation over another, one must use gathered evidence and judgment to determine the distributions of impact for each organisation, and whether the estimated distribution of the difference in impact merits a recommendation of one over the other...
...This stuff isn’t easy. But the fact that there is some probability mass on negative impact if we only recommend the organisation which we think is best in expectation is not disqualifying, nor should it be.
I think both the quote from you and the one I’ve added bold text to are true.
Individual chapters of Sunrise
Critics trying to take down Sunrise frequently pull out the most radical quote they can find from one of the local chapters and use it to disqualify the whole organization, but I don’t really think that’s valid.
I pulled that quote to indicate that the decentralised nature of Sunrise means any claims about its work being in any sense atypical of progressive activism more broadly are hard to believe. This is relevant not because one bad quote should discredit an organisation, but because I showed above that climate activism in general is not neglected, and you responded that effective climate activism is not neglected. But both statements can only simultaneously be true if Sunrise’s activism is meaningfully different from progressive activism more broadly, and it doesn’t appear to be.
Other than the clarification in my other comment, I think the most important disagreement we have is about Sunrise, so I’m going to primarily talk about that.
Neglectedness
TSM’s budget growing by 1.5 orders of magnitude since 2015 isn’t sufficient to show that they aren’t neglected, but I think it is sufficient to show that donations data from 2015 should not be relied on to make the case for neglectedness, especially as arguably the most famous activist in the cause area also didn’t start campaigning until 3 years later.
The claim that “there’s very little effective climate activism happening” is very different from the claim that climate activism in general is neglected, and I think may well be true, but that claim only applies to TSM if their activism is unusually effective compared to progressive activism more broadly (which is far from neglected), and I don’t think you’ve shown that. To the extent that TSM has goals, which is somewhat limited, those goals seem to be very typical of progressive climate activism in general, which as discussed is extremely far from being neglected. Sunrise Seattle’s open opposition to cap and trade is one recent example.
Sign of Impact
Isn’t the whole point of doing charity evaluation as opposed to just donating wherever you like that you can evaluate whether these sorts of claims are credible? I appreciate that you’re time pressured and am grateful for the time you’ve already given but I was really hoping for more than just “other organisations have this lobbed at them too”.
It doesn’t really feel consistent to me to take the position when comparing [donate to TSM] and [donate to CATF] that “there’s loads of uncertainty so we won’t make the call”, but then when comparing [Recommend TSM as they are +EV] to [Don’t recommend TSM as they are -EV], take the position “sure there’s loads of uncertainty but on balance the former is the best option”. What’s the difference I’m missing between the two cases?
Hi Alex, let me clarify my thoughts on the “unsure of sign” argument. Let’s say for a given charity, you are considering the sign of impact on some outcome given an increase in donations. Given inherent uncertainly, you might think of a having a probability distribution reflecting your belief on the effect of a donation on this outcome. In almost any case, you would have to believe that there is some non-zero portion of the probability mass of this distribution below zero (because we’ve seen good intentions backfire so many times.) This is my point: the sign of impact is always unknown, technically.
To make recommendation, one must use gathered evidence and judgment to determine the distribution of impacts, and whether this estimated distribution merits a recommendation. Based on our judgement, the distribution of potential impacts of Sunrise (including the mass of probability that is below zero) merits it a recommendation. You and others certainly can disagree with the estimated distribution of impacts or our judgement or whether it merits recommendation. This stuff isn’t easy. But the fact that there is some probability mass on negative impact is not disqualifying, nor should it be.
As for your first comment, it’s important to note that the local chapters of Sunrise can take policy positions at odds with the centralized movement. I agree that sometimes these are unsavory. But when you make a donation, you make it to the centralized org. Critics trying to take down Sunrise frequently pull out the most radical quote they can find from one of the local chapters and use it to disqualify the whole organization, but I don’t really think that’s valid.
It feels like we’re talking past each other a bit, so I’m going to try to clarify my position below but not add anything new. I don’t think the reply above adresses it, but that could well be due to lack of clarity on my part.
Sign of impact
I don’t think the problem with TSM is that there’s non-zero probability mass on negative outcomes. This is, as you point out, true for basically anything.
My issue with TSM is that, for the reasons laid out above, I think the probability mass on negative outcomes is extremely signficant, especially when compared to other good options, for example CATF. This would be enough to make it underperform CATF in expectation even if it had similar upside, though I don’t actually think it does.
Consistency
I agree with this. In fact, I still agree with it when the following words are added:
I think both the quote from you and the one I’ve added bold text to are true.
Individual chapters of Sunrise
I pulled that quote to indicate that the decentralised nature of Sunrise means any claims about its work being in any sense atypical of progressive activism more broadly are hard to believe. This is relevant not because one bad quote should discredit an organisation, but because I showed above that climate activism in general is not neglected, and you responded that effective climate activism is not neglected. But both statements can only simultaneously be true if Sunrise’s activism is meaningfully different from progressive activism more broadly, and it doesn’t appear to be.