Thanks Dan, I’m glad to see the comment and will have a more thorough look later. I wanted to clarify one thing though.
Alex is of the opinion that because we haven’t explicitly quantitatively modeled some of the tradeoffs we face, that the analysis isn’t to be trusted. (emphasis mine)
This isn’t quite right. I don’t agree with some of your analysis, but the reason I don’t agree is not the lack of quant models, it’s the things detailed above.
Separately, I do think we disagree on whether quantitative modelling is useful even in cases of very high uncertainty (I think it is). I also think that the act of trying to quantify models tends to improve analysis, and that making explicit models makes analysis much easier for others to critique, which is a good thing if our end goal is having correct analysis.
Thanks Dan, I’m glad to see the comment and will have a more thorough look later. I wanted to clarify one thing though.
This isn’t quite right. I don’t agree with some of your analysis, but the reason I don’t agree is not the lack of quant models, it’s the things detailed above.
Separately, I do think we disagree on whether quantitative modelling is useful even in cases of very high uncertainty (I think it is). I also think that the act of trying to quantify models tends to improve analysis, and that making explicit models makes analysis much easier for others to critique, which is a good thing if our end goal is having correct analysis.