Thanks for engaging here. This is a thoughtful and interesting comment, and I think it’s noteworthy that we basically agree on several important conclusions, namely that Giving Green should:
Clearly indicate that, currently, CATF looks, in expectation, to be far superior to TSM, not least because even if their own research doesn’t show this, everyone else’s does.
Be more clear about the difference in expectation between Offsets and Policy change (some progress has been made on this already).
Consider cost in their offset analysis (though that doesn’t mean calculating a naive $/TCO2e and calling it a day).
Be more clear about the current quality and limitations of their original research.
Consider incorporating quantitative models, especially about their own theory of change (not because qualitative ones aren’t valid, but because it would likely improve their reasoning and make it easier to evaluate).
There are, however, a couple of misconceptions in your comment which are similar to those in Dan’s initial responses, and have been discussed elsewhere in the comments. I’m going to try to summarise those here, as this thread has got very long so it’s not surprising some things are being missed.
Quantitative research
think we may not want to require a quantitative CEA on charities working on policy change
As I mentioned in my reply to Dan when he raised a similar concern, I’m not rejecting Giving Green’s because it is not quantitative, I’m rejecting Giving Green’s analysis because of the many substantial flaws which have been extensively discussed, and I’m also saying that quantitative modelling is a useful exercise which may have prevented or helped identify many of those flaws. The way that building quantitative models can improve analysis, even if the models themselves are rough or flawed, is usefully discussed by Johannes at the start of this epic comment which is longer than the post itself so I’ll quote the relevant section.
I should also state upfront that my credence in CATF and other high-impact climate charities does not come primarily from the cost-effectiveness models, which are clearly wrong and also described as such, but by the careful reasoning that has gone into the FP climate recommendations...
...But the process of building these models and doing the research around them—for each FP recommendation there is at least 20 pages worth of additional background research examining all kinds of concerns -- combined with years of expertise working in and studying climate policy, has served the purpose of clearly delineating the theory of value creation, as well as the risks and assumptions, in a way that a completely qualitative analysis that has a somewhat loose connection between evidence, arguments, and conclusions (recommendation) has not.
The fundamental concern with Giving Green’s analysis that I, and I think (?) Alex, have is not the lack of quantitative modeling per se, but the unwillingness to make systematic arguments about relative goodness of things in a situation of uncertainty, rather treating each concern as equally weighted and taking an attitude of “when things are uncertain, everything goes and we don’t know anything”...
The Sunrise Movement
Again, I think the most important misunderstanding here has already been discussed repeatedly in the comments. The difference between “is X good” and “is X good on the margin” is a massive and fundamental part of impact evaluation. It’s easy to argue a case along the lines of “progressive activism has been broadly positive/associated with positive changes”, I wholeheartedly agree with that claim! It just has very little to do with what the potential impact will be of TSM on the current margin. It is possible for extremely good causes to be poor donation opportunities, because additional donations would not allow them to do any more good. It is similarly possible for only moderately good causes to be extremely good donation opportunities, if additional donations would be transformative for them. Neglectedness is only one aspect of judging marginal impact, but it is discussed helpfully in this comment.
There’s been a good deal of discussion in other comments here and here, as well as the substance of the original post, about the downside risks of TSM, but I think it’s worth noting that the view that “the Biden camp will probably ignore them if they suggest something too crazy” is not one which is totally compatible with thinking that donations to TSM will have high marginal impact.
There are several ways in which TSM might influence things though which don’t seem obviously like they will fail, for example (quoting from this comment):
A stronger TSM could intensify pressure on Biden to prioritize executive orders over legislative politics, because this looks more appealing than more incrementally seeming legislative politics even though legislative politics would ultimately be more impactful and/or more robust over time.
I chose this in particular because it also speaks the “who is being ambitious and transformative” discussion which seems to have popped up a few times in the comments. Ultimately, bipartisan legislation, even if it’s slower to get big wins, ensures that those wins stick around in the long run (there’s also the national vs international angle, but that’s been covered elsewhere). Quoting part of another comment from Johannes:
All of the major success stories we have seen in climate over the past 20 years – solar, wind, coal > gas in the US, electric cars and batteries – have been the result of relatively narrow and targeted policies, the kind of which CATF advances for technologies that are less popular with greens for reasons of ideology, not merit.
Thanks for engaging here. This is a thoughtful and interesting comment, and I think it’s noteworthy that we basically agree on several important conclusions, namely that Giving Green should:
Clearly indicate that, currently, CATF looks, in expectation, to be far superior to TSM, not least because even if their own research doesn’t show this, everyone else’s does.
Be more clear about the difference in expectation between Offsets and Policy change (some progress has been made on this already).
Consider cost in their offset analysis (though that doesn’t mean calculating a naive $/TCO2e and calling it a day).
Be more clear about the current quality and limitations of their original research.
Consider incorporating quantitative models, especially about their own theory of change (not because qualitative ones aren’t valid, but because it would likely improve their reasoning and make it easier to evaluate).
There are, however, a couple of misconceptions in your comment which are similar to those in Dan’s initial responses, and have been discussed elsewhere in the comments. I’m going to try to summarise those here, as this thread has got very long so it’s not surprising some things are being missed.
Quantitative research
As I mentioned in my reply to Dan when he raised a similar concern, I’m not rejecting Giving Green’s because it is not quantitative, I’m rejecting Giving Green’s analysis because of the many substantial flaws which have been extensively discussed, and I’m also saying that quantitative modelling is a useful exercise which may have prevented or helped identify many of those flaws. The way that building quantitative models can improve analysis, even if the models themselves are rough or flawed, is usefully discussed by Johannes at the start of this epic comment which is longer than the post itself so I’ll quote the relevant section.
The Sunrise Movement
Again, I think the most important misunderstanding here has already been discussed repeatedly in the comments. The difference between “is X good” and “is X good on the margin” is a massive and fundamental part of impact evaluation. It’s easy to argue a case along the lines of “progressive activism has been broadly positive/associated with positive changes”, I wholeheartedly agree with that claim! It just has very little to do with what the potential impact will be of TSM on the current margin. It is possible for extremely good causes to be poor donation opportunities, because additional donations would not allow them to do any more good. It is similarly possible for only moderately good causes to be extremely good donation opportunities, if additional donations would be transformative for them. Neglectedness is only one aspect of judging marginal impact, but it is discussed helpfully in this comment.
There’s been a good deal of discussion in other comments here and here, as well as the substance of the original post, about the downside risks of TSM, but I think it’s worth noting that the view that “the Biden camp will probably ignore them if they suggest something too crazy” is not one which is totally compatible with thinking that donations to TSM will have high marginal impact.
There are several ways in which TSM might influence things though which don’t seem obviously like they will fail, for example (quoting from this comment):
I chose this in particular because it also speaks the “who is being ambitious and transformative” discussion which seems to have popped up a few times in the comments. Ultimately, bipartisan legislation, even if it’s slower to get big wins, ensures that those wins stick around in the long run (there’s also the national vs international angle, but that’s been covered elsewhere). Quoting part of another comment from Johannes: