Are you talking about this post? Looks like those cost-effectiveness estimates were written by Ambitious Impact so I don’t know if there are some other estimates written by Vasco.
I got the cost-effectiveness estimates I analysed in that post about global health and development directly from Ambitious Impact (AIM), and the ones about animal welfare adjusting their numbers based on Rethink Priorities’ median welfare ranges[1].
I do not have my cost-effectiveness estimates collected in one place. I would be happy to put something together for you, such as a sheet with the name of the intervention, area, source, date of publication, and cost-effectiveness in DALYs averted per $. However, I wonder whether it would be better for you to look into sets of AIM’s estimates respecting a given stage of a certain research round. AIM often uses them in weighted factor models to inform which ones to move to the next stage or recommend, so they are supposed to be specially comparable. In contrast, mine often concern different assumptions simply because they span a long period of time. For example, I now guess disabling pain is 10 % as intense as I assumed until October.
I could try to quickly adjust all my estimates such that they all reflect my current assumptions, but I suspect it would not be worth it. I believe AIM’s estimates by stage of a particular research round would still be more methodologically aligned, and credible to a wider audience. I am also confident that a set with all my estimates, at least if interpreted at face value, much more closely follow a Pareto, lognormal or loguniform distribution than a normal or uniform distribution. I estimate broiler welfare and cage-free campaigns are 168 and 462 times as cost-effective as GiveWell’s top charities, and that the Shrimp Welfare Project (SWP) has been 64.3 k times as cost-effective as such charities.
AIM used to assume welfare ranges conditional on sentience equal to 1 before moving to estimating the benefits of animal welfare interventions in suffering-adjusted days (SADs) in 2024. I believe the new system still dramatically underestimates the intensity of excruciating pain, and therefore the cost-effectiveness of interventions decreasing it. I estimate the past cost-effectiveness of SWP is 639 DALY/$. For AIM’s pain intensities, and my guess that hurtful pain is as intense as fully healthy life, I get 0.484 DALY/$, which is only 0.0757 % (= 0.484/639) of my estimate. Feel free to ask Vicky Cox, senior animal welfare researcher at AIM, for the sheet with their pain intensities, and the doc with my suggestions for improvement.
Are you talking about this post? Looks like those cost-effectiveness estimates were written by Ambitious Impact so I don’t know if there are some other estimates written by Vasco.
I’m thinking of all of his cost-effectiveness writings on this forum.
Thanks for the interest, Michael!
I got the cost-effectiveness estimates I analysed in that post about global health and development directly from Ambitious Impact (AIM), and the ones about animal welfare adjusting their numbers based on Rethink Priorities’ median welfare ranges[1].
I do not have my cost-effectiveness estimates collected in one place. I would be happy to put something together for you, such as a sheet with the name of the intervention, area, source, date of publication, and cost-effectiveness in DALYs averted per $. However, I wonder whether it would be better for you to look into sets of AIM’s estimates respecting a given stage of a certain research round. AIM often uses them in weighted factor models to inform which ones to move to the next stage or recommend, so they are supposed to be specially comparable. In contrast, mine often concern different assumptions simply because they span a long period of time. For example, I now guess disabling pain is 10 % as intense as I assumed until October.
I could try to quickly adjust all my estimates such that they all reflect my current assumptions, but I suspect it would not be worth it. I believe AIM’s estimates by stage of a particular research round would still be more methodologically aligned, and credible to a wider audience. I am also confident that a set with all my estimates, at least if interpreted at face value, much more closely follow a Pareto, lognormal or loguniform distribution than a normal or uniform distribution. I estimate broiler welfare and cage-free campaigns are 168 and 462 times as cost-effective as GiveWell’s top charities, and that the Shrimp Welfare Project (SWP) has been 64.3 k times as cost-effective as such charities.
AIM used to assume welfare ranges conditional on sentience equal to 1 before moving to estimating the benefits of animal welfare interventions in suffering-adjusted days (SADs) in 2024. I believe the new system still dramatically underestimates the intensity of excruciating pain, and therefore the cost-effectiveness of interventions decreasing it. I estimate the past cost-effectiveness of SWP is 639 DALY/$. For AIM’s pain intensities, and my guess that hurtful pain is as intense as fully healthy life, I get 0.484 DALY/$, which is only 0.0757 % (= 0.484/639) of my estimate. Feel free to ask Vicky Cox, senior animal welfare researcher at AIM, for the sheet with their pain intensities, and the doc with my suggestions for improvement.