Here’s a ton of questions pick your favourites to answer. What’s your typical forecasting workflow like? Subquestions:
Do you tend to make guesstimate/elicit/other models, or mostly go qualitative? If this differs for different kinds of questions, how?
How long do you spend on initial forecasts and how long on updates? (Per question and per update would both be interesting)
Do you adjust towards the community median and if so how/why?
More general forecasting:
What’s the most important piece of advice for new forecasters that isn’t contained in Tetlock’s superforecasting?
Do you forecast everyday things in your own life other than Twitter followers?
What unresolved question are you furthest from the community median on?
Here’s a ton of questions pick your favourites to answer. What’s your typical forecasting workflow like? Subquestions:
Do you tend to make guesstimate/elicit/other models, or mostly go qualitative? If this differs for different kinds of questions, how?
How long do you spend on initial forecasts and how long on updates? (Per question and per update would both be interesting)
Do you adjust towards the community median and if so how/why?
More general forecasting:
What’s the most important piece of advice for new forecasters that isn’t contained in Tetlock’s superforecasting?
Do you forecast everyday things in your own life other than Twitter followers?
What unresolved question are you furthest from the community median on?