Another potential outcome that comes to mind regarding such projects is a self-fulfilling prophecy effect (provided the predictions are not secret). I have no idea how much of an (positive/negative) impact it would have though.
Another potential outcome that comes to mind regarding such projects is a self-fulfilling prophecy effect [...]
That’s true though this is also an issue for other forecasting platforms—perhaps even more so for prediction markets where you could potentially earn millions by making your prediction come true. From what I can tell, this doesn’t seem to be a problem for other forecasting platforms, probably because most forecasted events are very difficult to affect by small groups of individuals. One exception that comes to mind is match fixing.
However, our proposal might be more vulnerable to this problem because there will (ideally) be many more forecasted events, so some of them might be easier to affect by a few individuals wishing to make their forecasts come true.
Thanks for writing this! :)
Another potential outcome that comes to mind regarding such projects is a self-fulfilling prophecy effect (provided the predictions are not secret). I have no idea how much of an (positive/negative) impact it would have though.
Thanks. :)
That’s true though this is also an issue for other forecasting platforms—perhaps even more so for prediction markets where you could potentially earn millions by making your prediction come true. From what I can tell, this doesn’t seem to be a problem for other forecasting platforms, probably because most forecasted events are very difficult to affect by small groups of individuals. One exception that comes to mind is match fixing.
However, our proposal might be more vulnerable to this problem because there will (ideally) be many more forecasted events, so some of them might be easier to affect by a few individuals wishing to make their forecasts come true.