This is a very good idea. The problems in my view are biggest on the business model and audience demand side. But there are still modest ways it could move forward. Journalism outlets are possible collaborators but they need the incentive perhaps by being able to make original content out of the forecasts.
To the extent prediction accuracy correlates with other epistemological skills you could task above average forecasters in the audience with tasks like up- and down-voting content or comments, too. And thereby improve user participation on news sites even if journalists did not themselves make predictions.
The problems in my view are biggest on the business model and audience demand side.
I agree.
Journalism outlets are possible collaborators but they need the incentive [...]
Yeah, maybe such outlets could receive financial support for their efforts by organizations like OpenPhil or the Rockefeller Foundation—which supported Vox’s Future Perfect.
To the extent prediction accuracy correlates with other epistemological skills you could task above average forecasters in the audience with tasks like up- and down-voting content or comments, too.
Interesting idea. More generally, it might be valuable if news outlets adopted more advanced commenting systems, perhaps with Karma and Karma-adjusted voting (e.g., similar to the EA forum). From what I can tell, downvoting isn’t even possible on most newspaper websites. However, Karma-adjusted voting and downvotes could also have negative effects, especially if coupled with a less sophisticated user base and less oversight than on the EA forum.
Agree on both points. Economist’s World in 2021 partnership with Good Judgment is interesting here. I also think as GJ and others do more content themselves, other content producers will start to see the potential of forecasts as a differentiated form of user-generated content they could explore. (My background is media/publishing so more attuned to that side than the internal dynamics of the social platforms.) If there are further discussions on this and you’re looking for participants let me know.
This is a very good idea. The problems in my view are biggest on the business model and audience demand side. But there are still modest ways it could move forward. Journalism outlets are possible collaborators but they need the incentive perhaps by being able to make original content out of the forecasts.
To the extent prediction accuracy correlates with other epistemological skills you could task above average forecasters in the audience with tasks like up- and down-voting content or comments, too. And thereby improve user participation on news sites even if journalists did not themselves make predictions.
Thanks!
I agree.
Yeah, maybe such outlets could receive financial support for their efforts by organizations like OpenPhil or the Rockefeller Foundation—which supported Vox’s Future Perfect.
Interesting idea. More generally, it might be valuable if news outlets adopted more advanced commenting systems, perhaps with Karma and Karma-adjusted voting (e.g., similar to the EA forum). From what I can tell, downvoting isn’t even possible on most newspaper websites. However, Karma-adjusted voting and downvotes could also have negative effects, especially if coupled with a less sophisticated user base and less oversight than on the EA forum.
Agree on both points. Economist’s World in 2021 partnership with Good Judgment is interesting here. I also think as GJ and others do more content themselves, other content producers will start to see the potential of forecasts as a differentiated form of user-generated content they could explore. (My background is media/publishing so more attuned to that side than the internal dynamics of the social platforms.) If there are further discussions on this and you’re looking for participants let me know.