Also, this paragraph from Holden really resonated with me:
In an ideal world, we’d be making so many bets like this that our track records would give clear evidence of which of us was a better predictor, overall. But I don’t think that’s going to happen; it’s a lot of work even to nail down a pretty simple, vivid disagreement like this one (and most important disagreements are much harder to reach bets on, and even this one may require a third-party judgment-driven adjustment). I don’t think that whichever of us wins this one bet should gain too much credibility relative to the other.
What kind of tools, sites, or economic structures could enable this ideal world? At Mantic we’re hoping accessible, user-created prediction markets will do the trick, but would love to hear alternative proposals!
I don’t have a great answer to your question. I think the easier and more normalized it gets to make bets like this, the more of them there will be—that’s about what I’ve got.
In practice I find some of the hardest parts of making bets like this are (a) noticing when a disagreement is of the right form such that it’s likely to be tractable to turn it into a bet; (b) hashing out all the details of how the bet will be resolved and trying to make them closely match the original conceptual disagreement. (b) is usually so much work that it doesn’t end up being worth it for the direct rewards (financial and otherwise), so some sort of norm that this is a virtuous thing to do could be important (but also, if there were a way to make (b) easier, that would be amazing).
I set up a prediction market for this bet! https://mantic.markets/AustinChen/will-at-least-75-of-the-usa-covid19
Also, this paragraph from Holden really resonated with me:
What kind of tools, sites, or economic structures could enable this ideal world? At Mantic we’re hoping accessible, user-created prediction markets will do the trick, but would love to hear alternative proposals!
Very cool, thanks!
I don’t have a great answer to your question. I think the easier and more normalized it gets to make bets like this, the more of them there will be—that’s about what I’ve got.
In practice I find some of the hardest parts of making bets like this are (a) noticing when a disagreement is of the right form such that it’s likely to be tractable to turn it into a bet; (b) hashing out all the details of how the bet will be resolved and trying to make them closely match the original conceptual disagreement. (b) is usually so much work that it doesn’t end up being worth it for the direct rewards (financial and otherwise), so some sort of norm that this is a virtuous thing to do could be important (but also, if there were a way to make (b) easier, that would be amazing).