In retrospect, my forecast that the median response to the first question would be as low as 10% was too ambitious. That would have been surprisingly low for a median.
I think my other forecasts were good. My 18% mean on Q1 was so low only because my median was low. Interestingly my own answer for Q1 was 20%, which was exactly the median response. I forget why I thought the mean and median answer would be lower than mine.
In retrospect, my forecast that the median response to the first question would be as low as 10% was too ambitious. That would have been surprisingly low for a median.
I think my other forecasts were good. My 18% mean on Q1 was so low only because my median was low. Interestingly my own answer for Q1 was 20%, which was exactly the median response. I forget why I thought the mean and median answer would be lower than mine.