On the premise that a 10% chance of AGI is much more salient than a 50% chance, given the stakes, it would be good to see a survey of a similar set of people with these two questions:1. Year with 10% chance of AGI.2. P(doom|AGI in that year)(Operationalising “doom” as Ord’s definition of “the greater part of our potential is gone and very little remains”, although I pretty much think of it as being paperclipped or equivalent so that ~0 value remains.)
On the premise that a 10% chance of AGI is much more salient than a 50% chance, given the stakes, it would be good to see a survey of a similar set of people with these two questions:
1. Year with 10% chance of AGI.
2. P(doom|AGI in that year)
(Operationalising “doom” as Ord’s definition of “the greater part of our potential is gone and very little remains”, although I pretty much think of it as being paperclipped or equivalent so that ~0 value remains.)