Pushing a magic button would be easy; affecting the real world is hard. Even if slowing is good, we should notice whether there exist tractable interventions (or: notice interventions’ opportunity cost).
Nope, my sense is that DeepMind, OpenAI, and Anthropic do and will have a small lead over Meta, Inflection, and others, such that I would be concerned (re increasing multipolarity among labs) about slowing DeepMind, OpenAI, and Anthropic now. (And I have 50% credence on human-level AI [noting this is underspecified] within 9 years.)
Yeah, maybe, depending. I’m relatively excited about “short term success” that seems likely to support the long-term policy regimes I’m excited about, like global monitoring of compute and oversight of training runs with model evals for dangerous capabilities and misalignment, maybe plus a compute cap. I fear that most pause-flavored examples of “short term success” won’t really support great long-term plans. (Again, I’d be excited to talk about specific proposals/outcomes/interventions.)
Pushing a magic button would be easy; affecting the real world is hard. Even if slowing is good, we should notice whether there exist tractable interventions (or: notice interventions’ opportunity cost).
Nope, my sense is that DeepMind, OpenAI, and Anthropic do and will have a small lead over Meta, Inflection, and others, such that I would be concerned (re increasing multipolarity among labs) about slowing DeepMind, OpenAI, and Anthropic now. (And I have 50% credence on human-level AI [noting this is underspecified] within 9 years.)
Yeah, maybe, depending. I’m relatively excited about “short term success” that seems likely to support the long-term policy regimes I’m excited about, like global monitoring of compute and oversight of training runs with model evals for dangerous capabilities and misalignment, maybe plus a compute cap. I fear that most pause-flavored examples of “short term success” won’t really support great long-term plans. (Again, I’d be excited to talk about specific proposals/outcomes/interventions.)