Once again, I’ll say that a study which analyzed the persuasion psychology/sociology of “x-risk from AI” (e.g., what lines of argument are most persuasive to what audiences, what’s the “minimal distance / max speed” people are willing to go from “what is AI risk” to “AI risk is persuasive,” how important is expert statements vs. theoretical arguments, what is the role of fiction in magnifying or undermining AI x-risk fears) seems like it would be quite valuable.
Although I’ve never held important roles or tried to persuade important people, in my conversations with peers I have found it difficult to walk the line between “sounding obsessed with AI x-risk” and “under emphasizing the risk,” because I just don’t have a good sense of how fast I can go from someone being unsure of whether AGI/superintelligence is even possible to “AI x-risk is >10% this century.”
Once again, I’ll say that a study which analyzed the persuasion psychology/sociology of “x-risk from AI” (e.g., what lines of argument are most persuasive to what audiences, what’s the “minimal distance / max speed” people are willing to go from “what is AI risk” to “AI risk is persuasive,” how important is expert statements vs. theoretical arguments, what is the role of fiction in magnifying or undermining AI x-risk fears) seems like it would be quite valuable.
Although I’ve never held important roles or tried to persuade important people, in my conversations with peers I have found it difficult to walk the line between “sounding obsessed with AI x-risk” and “under emphasizing the risk,” because I just don’t have a good sense of how fast I can go from someone being unsure of whether AGI/superintelligence is even possible to “AI x-risk is >10% this century.”