I would include the productivity of the reviewers and the scope of the investigations as factors of the time spent evaluating the evidence. For example, an investigator who analyzes the accuracy of key assumptions 10x faster and incorporates a 10x wider viewpoint can get 100x better conclusions than another reviewer spending the same time.
I would also conduct an expected value cost-benefit analysis in deciding to what extent minimal-trust investigations’ insights are shared. For example, if EA can lose $1 billion because of outlining the questions regarding LLIN effectiveness with a 50% chance, because it loses appeal to some funders, but can gain $2 billion with 10% chance which can be used 3x more cost-effectively, then the investigation should be shared.
If a better solution exists, such as keeping the LLIN cost-effectiveness as a cool entry point while later motivating people to devise solutions which generate high wellbeing impact across futures, then the LLIN questions can be shared on a medium accessible to more senior people while the impressive numbers exhibited publicly.
Then, using the above example, EA can lose $1 billion invested in malaria with 90% likelihood, develop a solution that sustainably addresses the fundamental issues (astronomically greater cost-effectiveness than LLINs because of the scale of the future), and gain $10 billion to find further solutions.
The question can be: can you keep speaking about systemic change intentions but difficulties with OPP while dropping questions so that the development and scale up of universally beneficial systemic solutions is supported?
I would include the productivity of the reviewers and the scope of the investigations as factors of the time spent evaluating the evidence. For example, an investigator who analyzes the accuracy of key assumptions 10x faster and incorporates a 10x wider viewpoint can get 100x better conclusions than another reviewer spending the same time.
I would also conduct an expected value cost-benefit analysis in deciding to what extent minimal-trust investigations’ insights are shared. For example, if EA can lose $1 billion because of outlining the questions regarding LLIN effectiveness with a 50% chance, because it loses appeal to some funders, but can gain $2 billion with 10% chance which can be used 3x more cost-effectively, then the investigation should be shared.
If a better solution exists, such as keeping the LLIN cost-effectiveness as a cool entry point while later motivating people to devise solutions which generate high wellbeing impact across futures, then the LLIN questions can be shared on a medium accessible to more senior people while the impressive numbers exhibited publicly.
Then, using the above example, EA can lose $1 billion invested in malaria with 90% likelihood, develop a solution that sustainably addresses the fundamental issues (astronomically greater cost-effectiveness than LLINs because of the scale of the future), and gain $10 billion to find further solutions.
The question can be: can you keep speaking about systemic change intentions but difficulties with OPP while dropping questions so that the development and scale up of universally beneficial systemic solutions is supported?