Another thought is that the title “x-risk tree” is slightly misleading:
The two things I think it visualises are drops in global population of 10% or 95% before 2100
So it doesn’t visualise the risk of extinction (although it does provide an upper bound)
It also doesn’t visualise existential risk (x-risk), which could be much higher than extinction risk, so the upper bound doesn’t hold
How about replacing the title with something like “How likely is a global catastrophe in our lifetimes?”
Agreed. I think it needs a ‘name’ as a symbol, but the current one is a little fudged. My placeholder for a while was ‘the tree of forking paths’ as a Borges reference, but that was a bit too general...
Another thought is that the title “x-risk tree” is slightly misleading:
The two things I think it visualises are drops in global population of 10% or 95% before 2100
So it doesn’t visualise the risk of extinction (although it does provide an upper bound)
It also doesn’t visualise existential risk (x-risk), which could be much higher than extinction risk, so the upper bound doesn’t hold
How about replacing the title with something like “How likely is a global catastrophe in our lifetimes?”
Agreed. I think it needs a ‘name’ as a symbol, but the current one is a little fudged. My placeholder for a while was ‘the tree of forking paths’ as a Borges reference, but that was a bit too general...