I think the approach taken in this post is still good: make the case that extinction risks are too small to ignore and neglected, so that everyone should agree we should invest more in them (whether or not you’re into a longtermism).
It’s similar to the approach taken in the Precipice, though less philosophical and longtermist.
I think it was a impactful post in that it was 80k’s main piece arguing in favour of focusing more of existential risk during a period when the community seems to have significantly shifted towards focusing on those risks, and during a period when 80k was likely one of the influences on that.
If I were writing it again, I’d probably emphasise risk from asteroids and nuclear war less than I did, since I think they’re small. I’d also try to avoid getting into the issue of what people think the risk of extinction is by default, since different surveys have such variable data about this.
The data and arguments in the Precipice are more thorough and up-to-date, so I’d also try to bring it in line with that.
Given this hasn’t been done, these days I normally refer people to our podcast with Toby Ord or the Precipice instead.
I think the approach taken in this post is still good: make the case that extinction risks are too small to ignore and neglected, so that everyone should agree we should invest more in them (whether or not you’re into a longtermism).
It’s similar to the approach taken in the Precipice, though less philosophical and longtermist.
I think it was a impactful post in that it was 80k’s main piece arguing in favour of focusing more of existential risk during a period when the community seems to have significantly shifted towards focusing on those risks, and during a period when 80k was likely one of the influences on that.
If I were writing it again, I’d probably emphasise risk from asteroids and nuclear war less than I did, since I think they’re small. I’d also try to avoid getting into the issue of what people think the risk of extinction is by default, since different surveys have such variable data about this.
The data and arguments in the Precipice are more thorough and up-to-date, so I’d also try to bring it in line with that.
Given this hasn’t been done, these days I normally refer people to our podcast with Toby Ord or the Precipice instead.