I found the 80,000 Hours data on anthropogenic risks particularly striking when compared to “common” low-probability events.
Specifically, the fact that a 100-year consistent play of the 6⁄49 lottery yields odds of 1 in 1,300 to win the jackpot makes the 1 in 10 estimate for unaligned AI or 1 in 30 for engineered pandemics feel much more real. Yet we dream about winning the lottery and not focus on a negative risk that is likely to happen during our lifetime.
The spending table also highlights a massive gap in neglectedness was also shocking to me:
The fact that luxury goods spending ($1.3T) nearly matches total Global R&D ($1.5T) suggests a massive misallocation of time/talent and financial resources.
Comparing Musk’s net worth (approx. $200B–$250B) to the global climate spend (>$300B) illustrates how concentrated the power to influence has become.
Securing our future is the ultimate multi-generational project. My personal drive comes from wanting to leave a stable legacy for the next generation (my daughther and her children), but we cannot afford to treat AI safety or pandemic prevention as ‘problems for the youth’ to solve later.
We need to bridge the gap between the emerging talent in the Effective Altruism community and the established leadership of Millenials, Gen X and Boomers. Solving 1-in-10 risks requires a ‘total talent’ approach that spans every age group and professional background.
I found the 80,000 Hours data on anthropogenic risks particularly striking when compared to “common” low-probability events.
Specifically, the fact that a 100-year consistent play of the 6⁄49 lottery yields odds of 1 in 1,300 to win the jackpot makes the 1 in 10 estimate for unaligned AI or 1 in 30 for engineered pandemics feel much more real. Yet we dream about winning the lottery and not focus on a negative risk that is likely to happen during our lifetime.
The spending table also highlights a massive gap in neglectedness was also shocking to me:
The fact that luxury goods spending ($1.3T) nearly matches total Global R&D ($1.5T) suggests a massive misallocation of time/talent and financial resources.
Comparing Musk’s net worth (approx. $200B–$250B) to the global climate spend (>$300B) illustrates how concentrated the power to influence has become.
Securing our future is the ultimate multi-generational project. My personal drive comes from wanting to leave a stable legacy for the next generation (my daughther and her children), but we cannot afford to treat AI safety or pandemic prevention as ‘problems for the youth’ to solve later.
We need to bridge the gap between the emerging talent in the Effective Altruism community and the established leadership of Millenials, Gen X and Boomers. Solving 1-in-10 risks requires a ‘total talent’ approach that spans every age group and professional background.