Just a quick comment to highlight the responses which we have given to the list of disagreements, and to tweak your summary a bit to better reflect what I (not to speak for my other two co-authors) see our post as saying:
A good outside view is that markets are a good way of finding an outside view on a topic — in this case, on transformative AI. Long-term real rates would be higher than they currently are if markets believed that transformative AI was coming in the next ~30 years. If you believe timelines are short, you should personally be saving less or borrowing more. If you believe timelines are short and the market will realise a meaningful amount of time before transformative AI arrives, you should take a short Treasuries position. If you believe that the market should have already realised it and priced it in right now, you should rethink your timelines.
Edit: As it turns out, there’s a nice third party summary which even more concisely captures the essence of what we are trying to get across!
Thanks for curating the post!
Just a quick comment to highlight the responses which we have given to the list of disagreements, and to tweak your summary a bit to better reflect what I (not to speak for my other two co-authors) see our post as saying:
Edit: As it turns out, there’s a nice third party summary which even more concisely captures the essence of what we are trying to get across!