I think I’ll try and type up my objections in a post rather than a comment—it seems to me that this post is so close to being right that it takes effort to pinpoint the exact place where I disagree, and so I want to take the time to formalize it a bit more.
But in short, I think it’s possible to have 1) rational traders, 2) markets that largely function well, and 3) still no 5+ year advance signal of AGI in the markets, without making very weird assumptions. (note: I choose the 5+ year timeline because I think once you get really close to AGI, say, less than 1 year and lots of weird stuff going on, then you’d at least see some turbulence in the markets as folks are getting confused about how to trade in this very strange situation, so I do think the markets are providing some evidence against extremely short timelines)
I think I’ll try and type up my objections in a post rather than a comment—it seems to me that this post is so close to being right that it takes effort to pinpoint the exact place where I disagree, and so I want to take the time to formalize it a bit more.
But in short, I think it’s possible to have 1) rational traders, 2) markets that largely function well, and 3) still no 5+ year advance signal of AGI in the markets, without making very weird assumptions. (note: I choose the 5+ year timeline because I think once you get really close to AGI, say, less than 1 year and lots of weird stuff going on, then you’d at least see some turbulence in the markets as folks are getting confused about how to trade in this very strange situation, so I do think the markets are providing some evidence against extremely short timelines)