I did say some of the best investments are private. But there are good public investments (MSFT, TSM, SMSN, ASML). Nothing in investing is guaranteed but trying to invest in AI companies seems like a much better bet than shorting interest rates. Also many rationalists are rich enough they can try to invest in various private companies.
It might be more convincing to directly attack their point that the price of MST, TSM, SMSN, ASML, etc. is a function of not only future profits but future interest rates.
Their claim is that the effect on equity prices is messy because of interest rates, not that future expected profits are necessarily lower than you believe.
I did say some of the best investments are private. But there are good public investments (MSFT, TSM, SMSN, ASML). Nothing in investing is guaranteed but trying to invest in AI companies seems like a much better bet than shorting interest rates. Also many rationalists are rich enough they can try to invest in various private companies.
It might be more convincing to directly attack their point that the price of MST, TSM, SMSN, ASML, etc. is a function of not only future profits but future interest rates.
Their claim is that the effect on equity prices is messy because of interest rates, not that future expected profits are necessarily lower than you believe.