Yep, makes sense. I adjusted my calculations to be about 10 years, to more directly reflect the post, which doesn’t seem to change much.
Agree that if all the other details checked out, and you had 1-2 year timelines, this might imply a higher expected return, but I don’t currently see why it would imply that the markets decisively reject 10 year timelines, even if you buy the rest of the model (which I also have a bunch of other critiques of).
Yep, makes sense. I adjusted my calculations to be about 10 years, to more directly reflect the post, which doesn’t seem to change much.
Agree that if all the other details checked out, and you had 1-2 year timelines, this might imply a higher expected return, but I don’t currently see why it would imply that the markets decisively reject 10 year timelines, even if you buy the rest of the model (which I also have a bunch of other critiques of).