(a short additional note here: yes some of this is addressed more at length in the post, e.g., in section X re my point 3, but IMO the authors are somewhat too strongly stating their case in those sections. You do not need a Yudkowskian “foom” scenario to happen overnight for the following point to be plausible: “timelines may be short-ish, say ~10 years, but the world will not realize until quite soon before, say 1-3 years, and in the meantime it won’t make sense to bet on interest rate movements for most people”)
(a short additional note here: yes some of this is addressed more at length in the post, e.g., in section X re my point 3, but IMO the authors are somewhat too strongly stating their case in those sections. You do not need a Yudkowskian “foom” scenario to happen overnight for the following point to be plausible: “timelines may be short-ish, say ~10 years, but the world will not realize until quite soon before, say 1-3 years, and in the meantime it won’t make sense to bet on interest rate movements for most people”)