Narrow the thought experiment to “cancer that banks aren’t able to find out about” and the thought experiment goes through fine. And US institutions are strongly supportive of secrecy, in general, so I think this is actually the typical case (at least for people who are young enough that seeking a large loan is not itself suspicious).
Mortgage rates for older people are higher. And if mortgage holders die, the mortgage must still be paid by the executor of an estate, which is a disincentive for anyone with a bequest motive.
I’m sure that we can find some corner case where young cancer victims with no friends/family or no regard for their friends/family act otherwise. But this hardly seems important for the point that you—yes, you—can make money by implementing the trades suggested in this piece. Which is the claim that Yudkowsky is using the cancer victim analogy to argue against.
Narrow the thought experiment to “cancer that banks aren’t able to find out about” and the thought experiment goes through fine. And US institutions are strongly supportive of secrecy, in general, so I think this is actually the typical case (at least for people who are young enough that seeking a large loan is not itself suspicious).
That does not get the thought experiment through.
Mortgage rates for older people are higher. And if mortgage holders die, the mortgage must still be paid by the executor of an estate, which is a disincentive for anyone with a bequest motive.
I’m sure that we can find some corner case where young cancer victims with no friends/family or no regard for their friends/family act otherwise. But this hardly seems important for the point that you—yes, you—can make money by implementing the trades suggested in this piece. Which is the claim that Yudkowsky is using the cancer victim analogy to argue against.