Increasing longevity (which note the authors say has an effect in the FOOM scenario, but not in the aligned scenario...)
Decreasing credit risk (what was ‘risk free’ in the 1400s is very different to what is ‘risk free’ today)
Consumption preferences being correlated to growth
I don’t really have a strong opinion on any of these—macro is really hard and really uncertain. To quote a friend of mine:
one thing is that if AGI looks something like robin hanson’s EM scenario, you really don’t want to owe money to anyone or if otherwise your labor is going to become worthless because then all you have is whatever capital you happen to own and if you borrowed to consume more today then that’s probably not going to be good
Borrowing and consuming because AGI is coming seems an incredibly risky proposition.
Yeah I agree that the AGI could also make you want to save more. One factor is that higher interest rates can mean it’s better to save more (depending on your risk aversion). Another factor is that it could increase your lifespan, or make it easier to convert money into utility (making your utility function more linear). That it could reduce the value of your future income from labour is another factor.
Interesting. What would be the theoretical explanation for a negative relationship?
I would guess some combination of:
Increasing longevity (which note the authors say has an effect in the FOOM scenario, but not in the aligned scenario...)
Decreasing credit risk (what was ‘risk free’ in the 1400s is very different to what is ‘risk free’ today)
Consumption preferences being correlated to growth
I don’t really have a strong opinion on any of these—macro is really hard and really uncertain. To quote a friend of mine:
Borrowing and consuming because AGI is coming seems an incredibly risky proposition.
Thanks!
Yeah I agree that the AGI could also make you want to save more. One factor is that higher interest rates can mean it’s better to save more (depending on your risk aversion). Another factor is that it could increase your lifespan, or make it easier to convert money into utility (making your utility function more linear). That it could reduce the value of your future income from labour is another factor.