You may like this post by nostalgebraist. I am open to betting up to 10 k$ against short AI timelines. I understand this does not work for people who think doom or utopia are certain soon after AGI, but I would say this is a super extreme view. Banks may offer loans with better conditions, but, as long as my bet is beneficial, one should take the bank loans until they are marginally neutral, and then also take my bet.
I’d love to read high quality critiques of this, especially the suggested timeline and likelihood. If you know any, please share!
Hi Manuel,
You may like this post by nostalgebraist. I am open to betting up to 10 k$ against short AI timelines. I understand this does not work for people who think doom or utopia are certain soon after AGI, but I would say this is a super extreme view. Banks may offer loans with better conditions, but, as long as my bet is beneficial, one should take the bank loans until they are marginally neutral, and then also take my bet.