It is interesting to note that, at least according to Toby Ord’s The Precipice, the existential risk from 2021 to 2120 from climate change is only 10 times (= 0.1 % / 0.01 %) as large as than of supervolcanic eruptions. However, efforts to reduce the damage of these are much more neglected, and do not seem clearly non-tractable, so they are arguably underrated.
Based on the probability of 1⁄6 of an eruption with a magnitude equal or larger than 7 in this century, and existential risk from eruptions in this century of 0.00800 % (= 1 - (1 − 0.01 %)^(80/100)), it seems like the probability of existential catastrophe given an eruption of magnitude equal or larger than 7 is 0.05 % (= 0.00800 % / (1/6)). Do you think this is too low/high? What would be the ejection of soot into the stratosphere given a volcanic eruption whose volcanic explosivity index is at least 7?
It is interesting to note that, at least according to Toby Ord’s The Precipice, the existential risk from 2021 to 2120 from climate change is only 10 times (= 0.1 % / 0.01 %) as large as than of supervolcanic eruptions. However, efforts to reduce the damage of these are much more neglected, and do not seem clearly non-tractable, so they are arguably underrated.
Based on the probability of 1⁄6 of an eruption with a magnitude equal or larger than 7 in this century, and existential risk from eruptions in this century of 0.00800 % (= 1 - (1 − 0.01 %)^(80/100)), it seems like the probability of existential catastrophe given an eruption of magnitude equal or larger than 7 is 0.05 % (= 0.00800 % / (1/6)). Do you think this is too low/high? What would be the ejection of soot into the stratosphere given a volcanic eruption whose volcanic explosivity index is at least 7?