Oh great, thanks so much, Kelsey! I didn’t know they only have 1500 ready, so I thought they’d have enough remaining to strike other nations. Definitely appreciate you bringing the human element (reluctance to follow orders) into the conversation as well.
Also, I did look into the source and the only thing I found was this very brief CBS news piece from 2015. So the map is quite outdated, and the data used was surely even older. That said, it did have a key clarification I found worth reflecting on today (as someone who knew little before now, anyway):
”The 2,000-warhead attack assumes a first strike by the Russians. The 500-warhead attack would be a retaliatory strike in the event the United States launched first, thus limiting the Russian arsenal.”
So apologies for any confusion. I now see the black dots are not necessarily additional to the purple triangles, and vise versa. Given the US won’t strike first, I realize we should look at the black dots and expect Russia to empty a lot of missiles on our missile holding areas (the black dot clusters in middle-America). And, with what remains, they’d aim for other cities. Coupling that realization with your assessment (and JP’s linked assessment) of how many missiles would hit, I do feel pretty safe.
That said, I wonder what [anyone reading this] thinks of Texas’s risk? (Bear with me. I live here, but it’s also an EA question)
Houston, TX: Houston is America’s oil and gas hub, so destroying Houston might force the rest of the world to buy Russian oil(?), despite Russian bad behavior. And this year, Houston oil companies (mostly or totally) sold their Russian stakes and said they don’t want to work with Russia (so, bridges have been burned and Russia-Houston relations are likely smoldering). While we don’t think of Houston as a “coastal city”, might Russian submarines go to the Gulf of Mexico to ensure they hit Houston?
That is relevant for everyone’s expected value calculations because it would reduce the number of sub missiles for the West and East coasts. And...
Austin (and nearby military bases): I and other EAs live in Austin, TX, and I was thinking of inviting friends from coastal cities if careful people start relocating. But now, I can’t tell if Austin looks better than coastal cities like Santa Rosa, and I kinda wonder if we in Austin should be more willing to leave if things worsen a lot. So, if Russians prioritize Houston, might this also heighten the risk to other Texas citie(s)? -Austin: Texas’s capital, so hitting it might worsen Houston’s struggles. Billionaire hub, including the most famous one. Has an excellent research University (UT) that is also one of America’s largest universities. Has satellite offices of major US companies (Google, Apple, Amazon, IBM, Oracle, Tesla, and Meta). Overall way more notable than in 2015 when the above map was made. And, yeah, some EAs live here. -San Antonio: US’s largest joint military base. Fallout to Austin if hit. -Fort Hood: US’s third-largest single military base. Fallout to Austin if hit.
I was originally thinking Austin might be a standout city for American EAs and rationalists on [“nuclear risk” x “quality of life” x “existing EA/rationalist culture”], but now IDK. I’m at a loss as to where to rank it, and when we should consider extreme preparations or leaving compared to EAs on the coasts.
Oh great, thanks so much, Kelsey! I didn’t know they only have 1500 ready, so I thought they’d have enough remaining to strike other nations. Definitely appreciate you bringing the human element (reluctance to follow orders) into the conversation as well.
Also, I did look into the source and the only thing I found was this very brief CBS news piece from 2015. So the map is quite outdated, and the data used was surely even older. That said, it did have a key clarification I found worth reflecting on today (as someone who knew little before now, anyway):
”The 2,000-warhead attack assumes a first strike by the Russians. The 500-warhead attack would be a retaliatory strike in the event the United States launched first, thus limiting the Russian arsenal.”
So apologies for any confusion. I now see the black dots are not necessarily additional to the purple triangles, and vise versa.
Given the US won’t strike first, I realize we should look at the black dots and expect Russia to empty a lot of missiles on our missile holding areas (the black dot clusters in middle-America). And, with what remains, they’d aim for other cities. Coupling that realization with your assessment (and JP’s linked assessment) of how many missiles would hit, I do feel pretty safe.
That said, I wonder what [anyone reading this] thinks of Texas’s risk? (Bear with me. I live here, but it’s also an EA question)
Houston, TX: Houston is America’s oil and gas hub, so destroying Houston might force the rest of the world to buy Russian oil(?), despite Russian bad behavior. And this year, Houston oil companies (mostly or totally) sold their Russian stakes and said they don’t want to work with Russia (so, bridges have been burned and Russia-Houston relations are likely smoldering). While we don’t think of Houston as a “coastal city”, might Russian submarines go to the Gulf of Mexico to ensure they hit Houston?
That is relevant for everyone’s expected value calculations because it would reduce the number of sub missiles for the West and East coasts. And...
Austin (and nearby military bases): I and other EAs live in Austin, TX, and I was thinking of inviting friends from coastal cities if careful people start relocating. But now, I can’t tell if Austin looks better than coastal cities like Santa Rosa, and I kinda wonder if we in Austin should be more willing to leave if things worsen a lot.
So, if Russians prioritize Houston, might this also heighten the risk to other Texas citie(s)?
-Austin: Texas’s capital, so hitting it might worsen Houston’s struggles. Billionaire hub, including the most famous one. Has an excellent research University (UT) that is also one of America’s largest universities. Has satellite offices of major US companies (Google, Apple, Amazon, IBM, Oracle, Tesla, and Meta). Overall way more notable than in 2015 when the above map was made. And, yeah, some EAs live here.
-San Antonio: US’s largest joint military base. Fallout to Austin if hit.
-Fort Hood: US’s third-largest single military base. Fallout to Austin if hit.
I was originally thinking Austin might be a standout city for American EAs and rationalists on [“nuclear risk” x “quality of life” x “existing EA/rationalist culture”], but now IDK. I’m at a loss as to where to rank it, and when we should consider extreme preparations or leaving compared to EAs on the coasts.