it’s important to strike a balance, and some people in the EA community clearly overreacted to COVID
the immediate risk right now is low, I don’t plan to leave or make imminent preparations for leaving, and I think people probably shouldn’t unless it’s very easy for them
the total risk of Ukraine-originating nuclear war is not that high; in the week before the invasion I said 3% (including 2023 and future years if the war was still happening then), and that seems roughly right
However, my model is that any use of nuclear weapons “in anger” is a Big Red Line. It’s become almost unthinkable through eight decades of tradition, through dozens of high-tension periods, regional wars and international crises. I don’t think the public will really distinguish between “tactical” use and “strategic” use. The exact yields of Russian “tactical” devices seem to be secret, but I don’t think it’d be much less powerful than Hiroshima, and given Ukraine’s geography it’d almost certainly hit civilian homes somewhere. Because of that, my p(nukes used in Ukraine) is pretty low (maybe 6%?), but p(SF gets nuked|nukes used in Ukraine) is fairly high (maybe 25%); there would be intense escalation pressure on both sides.
Comment from General Hyten, former head of STRATCOM:
”In 2017, then-Air Force Gen. John E. Hyten took exception to the idea that tactical nuclear weapons are really in a different category than strategic nuclear weapons. Hyten, who was at that point overseeing U.S. nuclear weapons as the chief of U.S. Strategic Command, described how the United States could respond if another country used them.
“It’s not a tactical effect, and if somebody employs what is a nonstrategic or tactical nuclear weapon, the United States will respond strategically, not tactically, because they have now crossed a line, a line that has not been crossed since 1945,” Hyten said.”
”Mr. Biden also challenged Russian nuclear doctrine, warning that the use of a lower-yield tactical weapon could quickly spiral out of control into global destruction.
“I don’t think there is any such a thing as the ability to easily use a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon,” Mr. Biden said.”
I totally agree that:
it’s important to strike a balance, and some people in the EA community clearly overreacted to COVID
the immediate risk right now is low, I don’t plan to leave or make imminent preparations for leaving, and I think people probably shouldn’t unless it’s very easy for them
the total risk of Ukraine-originating nuclear war is not that high; in the week before the invasion I said 3% (including 2023 and future years if the war was still happening then), and that seems roughly right
However, my model is that any use of nuclear weapons “in anger” is a Big Red Line. It’s become almost unthinkable through eight decades of tradition, through dozens of high-tension periods, regional wars and international crises. I don’t think the public will really distinguish between “tactical” use and “strategic” use. The exact yields of Russian “tactical” devices seem to be secret, but I don’t think it’d be much less powerful than Hiroshima, and given Ukraine’s geography it’d almost certainly hit civilian homes somewhere. Because of that, my p(nukes used in Ukraine) is pretty low (maybe 6%?), but p(SF gets nuked|nukes used in Ukraine) is fairly high (maybe 25%); there would be intense escalation pressure on both sides.
Comment from General Hyten, former head of STRATCOM:
”In 2017, then-Air Force Gen. John E. Hyten took exception to the idea that tactical nuclear weapons are really in a different category than strategic nuclear weapons. Hyten, who was at that point overseeing U.S. nuclear weapons as the chief of U.S. Strategic Command, described how the United States could respond if another country used them.
“It’s not a tactical effect, and if somebody employs what is a nonstrategic or tactical nuclear weapon, the United States will respond strategically, not tactically, because they have now crossed a line, a line that has not been crossed since 1945,” Hyten said.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/29/why-world-is-so-worried-about-russias-tactical-nuclear-weapons/
”Mr. Biden also challenged Russian nuclear doctrine, warning that the use of a lower-yield tactical weapon could quickly spiral out of control into global destruction.
“I don’t think there is any such a thing as the ability to easily use a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon,” Mr. Biden said.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-armageddon-nuclear-risk-cuban-missile-crisis-russia-tensions/