I strongly do not expect full nuclear exchange in immediate response to Russia tac nuke use; the situation that seems plausible to me would involve conventional retaliation against Russian forces in Ukraine, Syria, etc., followed by Russia responding to that. So I think leaving at a further point still means leaving well ahead of a full exchange.
I think my work is much more valuable in worlds without a full nuclear exchange; iirc you are pretty doomy on current trajectories, so maybe you actually think your work is more valuable in worlds with a full nuclear exchange, or at least of comparable value?
I think I’m twice as productive at home, for reasons relating to childcare, disruption associated with fleeing, personal traits, my home being well set up to meet my needs, diet, etc.
I think my work is much more valuable in worlds without a full nuclear exchange; iirc you are pretty doomy on current trajectories, so maybe you actually think your work is more valuable in worlds with a full nuclear exchange, or at least of comparable value?
Oh, hmm, this might be a big difference. I think my work might be 10x more valuable in worlds with nuclear exchange (since I think the world becomes a lot more malleable as a result of such a crisis, seems like there is a big opportunity to change humanity’s relation to existential risk, I have a broad generalist skillset, and if there are fewer people around but I survive, seems like I should have a higher prior that I can influence humanity’s future).
I am currently just using a 1x multiplier in my estimates, but I think a 3-5x would more accurately capture my beliefs.
I strongly do not expect full nuclear exchange in immediate response to Russia tac nuke use; the situation that seems plausible to me would involve conventional retaliation against Russian forces in Ukraine, Syria, etc., followed by Russia responding to that. So I think leaving at a further point still means leaving well ahead of a full exchange.
To be clear, I also strongly expect a more gradual escalation, but I do think the MAD doctrine and in-general the “first-strike wins” (in the absence of immediate retaliation) nature of nuclear conflict makes it pretty hard for me to be confident in this. Like, I think governments have tried pretty hard to maintain a strict taboo against any offensive use of nuclear weapons, and have backed that taboo with nuclear escalation, and while I do think that more likely than not still means things will escalate gradually, I still feel like I can’t go below 1-5% that a much more quick and drastic escalation occurs.
Plausible cruxes:
I strongly do not expect full nuclear exchange in immediate response to Russia tac nuke use; the situation that seems plausible to me would involve conventional retaliation against Russian forces in Ukraine, Syria, etc., followed by Russia responding to that. So I think leaving at a further point still means leaving well ahead of a full exchange.
I think my work is much more valuable in worlds without a full nuclear exchange; iirc you are pretty doomy on current trajectories, so maybe you actually think your work is more valuable in worlds with a full nuclear exchange, or at least of comparable value?
I think I’m twice as productive at home, for reasons relating to childcare, disruption associated with fleeing, personal traits, my home being well set up to meet my needs, diet, etc.
Oh, hmm, this might be a big difference. I think my work might be 10x more valuable in worlds with nuclear exchange (since I think the world becomes a lot more malleable as a result of such a crisis, seems like there is a big opportunity to change humanity’s relation to existential risk, I have a broad generalist skillset, and if there are fewer people around but I survive, seems like I should have a higher prior that I can influence humanity’s future).
I am currently just using a 1x multiplier in my estimates, but I think a 3-5x would more accurately capture my beliefs.
To be clear, I also strongly expect a more gradual escalation, but I do think the MAD doctrine and in-general the “first-strike wins” (in the absence of immediate retaliation) nature of nuclear conflict makes it pretty hard for me to be confident in this. Like, I think governments have tried pretty hard to maintain a strict taboo against any offensive use of nuclear weapons, and have backed that taboo with nuclear escalation, and while I do think that more likely than not still means things will escalate gradually, I still feel like I can’t go below 1-5% that a much more quick and drastic escalation occurs.