That’s an interesting question, thanks. To summarize my remarks below: AI and climate change are more market-oriented, asteroids and nuclear weapons are more government-oriented, biosecurity is a mix of both, and philanthropy has a role everywhere.
First, market solutions will be limited for all global catastrophic risks because the risks inevitably involve major externalities. The benefits of reducing global catastrophic risks go to people all over the world and future generations. Markets aren’t set up to handle that sort of value.
That said, there can still be a role for market activity in certain global catastrophic risks, especially AI and climate change. AI and climate change are distinctive in that both involve highly profitable activity from some of the largest corporations in the world. Per this https://companiesmarketcap.com, the current top five largest companies are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Saudi Aramco, and Amazon. My own work on AI corporate governance is largely motivated by my prior experience working on climate change policy, including my PhD dissertation).
There are ways to make money while reducing climate change risk, such as by reducing expenditures on energy or building transit-oriented housing. The climate benefits are more incidental, but they can still be significant. Likewise, for AI, market demand for safe near-term AI technologies can have some incidental benefits for improving the safety of long-term AI technologies like AGI. These are good opportunities to pursue, as are opportunities to influence corporate governance to better align corporate activities with reducing global catastrophic risk.
Second, governments can play important roles in all of the global catastrophic risks. Even for corporate activity related to AI and climate change, governments have important roles as regulators. That said, governments are especially important for nuclear weapons and asteroids. There certainly is a role for a variety non-governmental actors to reduce nuclear weapons risk (see this for an overview). That said, it’s still the case that governments control the weapons and make the major decisions about them. Governments also play a central in addressing asteroid impacts, supplemented by a robust scientific community, though I believe the science is also largely funded by government work.
Third, philanthropy can play important roles in all of the global catastrophic risks. Philanthropic and nonprofit activity is highly versatile and can play roles that markets and governments can’t or won’t do. Ten years ago, prior to the deep learning revolution, I believe almost all work on global catastrophic risk from AI was from philanthropy; now the portfolio of work is more diverse. For the current state of affairs, I don’t have a specific answer to the question.
And briefly, regarding biosecurity, that is a risk in which governments and markets are both quite important. This is seen in the ongoing pandemic, for example in the role of the pharmaceutical industry in developing and manufacturing vaccines and the role of governments in supporting vaccine development and distribution and a variety of other policy responses.
That’s an interesting question, thanks. To summarize my remarks below: AI and climate change are more market-oriented, asteroids and nuclear weapons are more government-oriented, biosecurity is a mix of both, and philanthropy has a role everywhere.
First, market solutions will be limited for all global catastrophic risks because the risks inevitably involve major externalities. The benefits of reducing global catastrophic risks go to people all over the world and future generations. Markets aren’t set up to handle that sort of value.
That said, there can still be a role for market activity in certain global catastrophic risks, especially AI and climate change. AI and climate change are distinctive in that both involve highly profitable activity from some of the largest corporations in the world. Per this https://companiesmarketcap.com, the current top five largest companies are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Saudi Aramco, and Amazon. My own work on AI corporate governance is largely motivated by my prior experience working on climate change policy, including my PhD dissertation).
There are ways to make money while reducing climate change risk, such as by reducing expenditures on energy or building transit-oriented housing. The climate benefits are more incidental, but they can still be significant. Likewise, for AI, market demand for safe near-term AI technologies can have some incidental benefits for improving the safety of long-term AI technologies like AGI. These are good opportunities to pursue, as are opportunities to influence corporate governance to better align corporate activities with reducing global catastrophic risk.
Second, governments can play important roles in all of the global catastrophic risks. Even for corporate activity related to AI and climate change, governments have important roles as regulators. That said, governments are especially important for nuclear weapons and asteroids. There certainly is a role for a variety non-governmental actors to reduce nuclear weapons risk (see this for an overview). That said, it’s still the case that governments control the weapons and make the major decisions about them. Governments also play a central in addressing asteroid impacts, supplemented by a robust scientific community, though I believe the science is also largely funded by government work.
Third, philanthropy can play important roles in all of the global catastrophic risks. Philanthropic and nonprofit activity is highly versatile and can play roles that markets and governments can’t or won’t do. Ten years ago, prior to the deep learning revolution, I believe almost all work on global catastrophic risk from AI was from philanthropy; now the portfolio of work is more diverse. For the current state of affairs, I don’t have a specific answer to the question.
And briefly, regarding biosecurity, that is a risk in which governments and markets are both quite important. This is seen in the ongoing pandemic, for example in the role of the pharmaceutical industry in developing and manufacturing vaccines and the role of governments in supporting vaccine development and distribution and a variety of other policy responses.
This is a very comprehensive answer! I especially appreciate your summary up top and you linking to sources. Thank you :-)